- National teams
- Friendly
United States v Canada
48%United States
29%Draw
23%Canada
United States, just.
TestedUnited States win about 48 times in 100. The other 52: a draw (29) or a Canada win (23).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:46 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals42%
Both teams score47%
Expected goals1.5 v 0.9
Most likely score1-113% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals69%
3 or more goals42%
4 or more goals22%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedUnited States: 1 or more77%
United States: 2 or more43%
United States: 3 or more18%
Canada: 1 or more61%
Canada: 2 or more24%
Canada: 3 or more7%
Both teams score47%
At least one team does not score53%
Winning margin
TestedUnited States by 3 or more10%
United States by 215%
United States by 124%
Draw28%
Canada by 115%
Canada by 26%
Canada by 3 or more2%
Result combinations
TestedUnited States win or draw77%
Either team wins (no draw)72%
Canada win or draw52%
Clean sheets
TestedUnited States keep a clean sheet39%
Canada keep a clean sheet23%
United States win without conceding29%
Canada win without conceding13%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateUnited States score first55%
Canada score first35%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: United States goals down, Canada goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half67%
A goal in the second half72%
United States ahead at half-time36%
Level at half-time44%
Canada ahead at half-time20%
United States win the second half38%
Second half level40%
Canada win the second half22%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half40%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateUnited States ahead at half-time, United States win30%
Level at half-time, United States win17%
Canada ahead at half-time, United States win2%
United States ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw18%
Canada ahead at half-time, draw5%
United States ahead at half-time, Canada win1%
Level at half-time, Canada win9%
Canada ahead at half-time, Canada win13%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
United StatesCanada
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works