- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
France v Belgium
59%France
25%Draw
16%Belgium
France ahead.
TestedFrance win about 59 times in 100. The other 41: a draw (25) or a Belgium win (16).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:56 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals46%
Both teams score45%
Expected goals1.7 v 0.8
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals91%
2 or more goals72%
3 or more goals46%
4 or more goals25%
5 or more goals11%
Exactly
0 goals9%
1 goal19%
2 goals26%
3 goals21%
4 goals14%
5 goals7%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedFrance: 1 or more82%
France: 2 or more51%
France: 3 or more25%
Belgium: 1 or more54%
Belgium: 2 or more18%
Belgium: 3 or more4%
Both teams score45%
At least one team does not score55%
Winning margin
TestedFrance by 3 or more15%
France by 218%
France by 125%
Draw25%
Belgium by 111%
Belgium by 24%
Belgium by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedFrance win or draw84%
Either team wins (no draw)75%
Belgium win or draw41%
Clean sheets
TestedFrance keep a clean sheet46%
Belgium keep a clean sheet18%
France win without conceding37%
Belgium win without conceding9%
No goals at all9%
The first goal
Model estimateFrance score first63%
Belgium score first28%
No goals9%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1530%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: France goals down, Belgium goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.7 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half68%
A goal in the second half74%
France ahead at half-time43%
Level at half-time42%
Belgium ahead at half-time15%
France win the second half47%
Second half level37%
Belgium win the second half16%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves28%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateFrance ahead at half-time, France win38%
Level at half-time, France win19%
Belgium ahead at half-time, France win2%
France ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw16%
Belgium ahead at half-time, draw4%
France ahead at half-time, Belgium win1%
Level at half-time, Belgium win6%
Belgium ahead at half-time, Belgium win8%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
FranceBelgium
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works