Colombia v Peru

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Colombia

• Luis DíazLeft winger, started 4 of the last 542%to score
• Luis SuárezForward, started 3 of the last 531%to score
• James RodríguezAttacking midfielder, started 4 of the last 525%to score
• Jhon AriasForward, started 5 of the last 518%to score

Most likely to assist: Luis Díaz 32%, Gustavo Puerta 17%

Peru

• Jhonny VidalesForward, started 3 of the last 58%to score
• Adrián UgarrizaForward, started 2 of the last 56%to score
• Jairo VélezAttacking midfielder, started 5 of the last 55%to score
• Yoshimar YotúnMidfielder, started 4 of the last 54%to score

Most likely to assist: Jairo Vélez 4%, Yoshimar Yotún 3%

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast. The models learned on club matches, applied to the two national teams' last internationals.

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

Colombia

Colombia: each player's chances

Player	Min	Score	2+	Assist	Goal or assist	Shots
Luis Díaz	72	42%	11%	32%	61%	3.2
Luis Suárez	64	31%	5%	12%	39%	2.3
James Rodríguez	49	25%	3%	10%	32%	1.8
Jhon Arias	76	18%	2%	9%	26%	1.4
Gustavo Puerta	90	13%	<1%	17%	27%	1.5
Daniel Muñoz	73	11%	<1%	15%	24%	1.0
Jhon Córdoba bench	20	11%	<1%	4%	15%	0.7
Jefferson Lerma	64	9%	<1%	10%	18%	1.0
Andrés Gómez bench	13	7%	<1%	3%	10%	0.5
Davinson Sánchez	90	7%	<1%	9%	15%	0.8
Richard Ríos bench	33	7%	<1%	7%	13%	0.7
Jhon Lucumí	90	6%	<1%	4%	9%	0.5
Johan Mojica	54	4%	<1%	6%	10%	0.5
Juan Fernando Quintero bench	17	4%	<1%	4%	7%	0.4
Kevin Castaño bench	17	4%	<1%	4%	7%	0.4
Jáminton Campaz bench	10	2%	<1%	2%	4%	0.2
Deiver Machado bench	18	1%	<1%	2%	3%	0.2
Santiago Arias bench	17	1%	<1%	2%	3%	0.2
Álvaro Angulo bench	13	1%	<1%	1%	2%	0.1
Camilo Vargas	72	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0
Álvaro Montero bench	18	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0

Peru

Peru: each player's chances

Player	Min	Score	2+	Assist	Goal or assist	Shots
Jhonny Vidales	55	8%	<1%	3%	11%	0.5
Adrián Ugarriza	38	6%	<1%	2%	7%	0.4
Jairo Vélez	82	5%	<1%	4%	9%	0.5
Yoshimar Yotún	64	4%	<1%	3%	7%	0.4
Gianluca Lapadula bench	20	3%	<1%	1%	4%	0.2
Alex Valera bench	20	3%	<1%	<1%	4%	0.2
Erick Noriega	44	3%	<1%	2%	5%	0.2
Wilder Cartagena	38	2%	<1%	2%	4%	0.2
Piero Magallanes bench	34	2%	<1%	2%	4%	0.2
Jesús Pretell bench	33	2%	<1%	2%	4%	0.2
Marcos López	84	2%	<1%	2%	4%	0.2
Renzo Garcés	81	2%	<1%	2%	4%	0.2
Oslimg Mora bench	30	2%	<1%	2%	3%	0.2
André Carrillo bench	26	2%	<1%	1%	3%	0.1
Oliver Sonne	67	1%	<1%	2%	3%	0.2
Jairo Concha bench	20	1%	<1%	1%	2%	0.1
Bassco Soyer bench	16	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	0.1
Miguel Araujo	36	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	0.1
Fabio Gruber bench	27	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	0.1
Maxloren Castro bench	10	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	0.1
Adrián Quiroz bench	9	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.1
Kenji Cabrera bench	9	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.1
Alfonso Barco bench	24	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	0.1
Antonio Huamán bench	23	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	0.1
César Inga bench	6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0
Pedro Gallese	72	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0
Diego Romero bench	18	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0.0