- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Czech Republic v England
9%Czech Republic
18%Draw
73%England
England, clearly.
TestedEngland win about 73 times in 100. The other 27: a draw (18) or a Czech Republic win (9).
Forecast by Vesta, published Tuesday 29 September 2026, 12:06 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 0–2: Vesta gave this result 73%. The favourite came through.
3 or more goals53%
Both teams score41%
Expected goals0.6 v 2.2
Most likely score0-214% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals94%
2 or more goals77%
3 or more goals53%
4 or more goals31%
5 or more goals16%
Exactly
0 goals6%
1 goal16%
2 goals24%
3 goals22%
4 goals16%
5 goals9%
6 or more goals7%
Goals by team
TestedCzech Republic: 1 or more46%
Czech Republic: 2 or more13%
Czech Republic: 3 or more2%
England: 1 or more89%
England: 2 or more64%
England: 3 or more38%
Both teams score41%
At least one team does not score59%
Winning margin
TestedCzech Republic by 3 or more0%
Czech Republic by 22%
Czech Republic by 16%
Draw18%
England by 124%
England by 222%
England by 3 or more27%
Result combinations
TestedCzech Republic win or draw27%
Either team wins (no draw)82%
England win or draw92%
Clean sheets
TestedCzech Republic keep a clean sheet11%
England keep a clean sheet54%
Czech Republic win without conceding5%
England win without conceding48%
No goals at all6%
The first goal
Model estimateCzech Republic score first20%
England score first73%
No goals6%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1533%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+5%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Czech Republic goals down, England goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 12.7 | 14.4 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.6 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | · | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half72%
A goal in the second half79%
Czech Republic ahead at half-time10%
Level at half-time37%
England ahead at half-time54%
Czech Republic win the second half11%
Second half level31%
England win the second half58%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half44%
Same goals in both halves25%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateCzech Republic ahead at half-time, Czech Republic win4%
Level at half-time, Czech Republic win4%
England ahead at half-time, Czech Republic win1%
Czech Republic ahead at half-time, draw3%
Level at half-time, draw12%
England ahead at half-time, draw3%
Czech Republic ahead at half-time, England win2%
Level at half-time, England win21%
England ahead at half-time, England win50%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
Czech RepublicEngland
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works