- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Moldova v Faroe Islands
33%Moldova
30%Draw
37%Faroe Islands
Too close to call.
TestedOut of 100: Moldova 33, draw 30, Faroe Islands 37. No result stands out.
Forecast by Vesta, published Tuesday 29 September 2026, 12:06 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 1–1: Vesta gave this result 30%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.1 v 1.2
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals89%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals11%
1 goal22%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals5%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedMoldova: 1 or more68%
Moldova: 2 or more31%
Moldova: 3 or more10%
Faroe Islands: 1 or more70%
Faroe Islands: 2 or more34%
Faroe Islands: 3 or more12%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedMoldova by 3 or more4%
Moldova by 29%
Moldova by 120%
Draw30%
Faroe Islands by 121%
Faroe Islands by 211%
Faroe Islands by 3 or more5%
Result combinations
TestedMoldova win or draw63%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Faroe Islands win or draw67%
Clean sheets
TestedMoldova keep a clean sheet30%
Faroe Islands keep a clean sheet32%
Moldova win without conceding20%
Faroe Islands win without conceding22%
No goals at all11%
The first goal
Model estimateMoldova score first43%
Faroe Islands score first47%
No goals11%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1528%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+17%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+7%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Moldova goals down, Faroe Islands goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.1 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 14.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half64%
A goal in the second half72%
Moldova ahead at half-time26%
Level at half-time46%
Faroe Islands ahead at half-time28%
Moldova win the second half29%
Second half level41%
Faroe Islands win the second half30%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateMoldova ahead at half-time, Moldova win19%
Level at half-time, Moldova win13%
Faroe Islands ahead at half-time, Moldova win1%
Moldova ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw20%
Faroe Islands ahead at half-time, draw5%
Moldova ahead at half-time, Faroe Islands win2%
Level at half-time, Faroe Islands win14%
Faroe Islands ahead at half-time, Faroe Islands win21%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
MoldovaFaroe Islands
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works