- National teams
- Friendly
Bolivia v Gambia
60%Bolivia
25%Draw
15%Gambia
Bolivia ahead.
TestedBolivia win about 60 times in 100. The other 40: a draw (25) or a Gambia win (15).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:44 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals46%
Both teams score45%
Expected goals1.8 v 0.8
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals91%
2 or more goals72%
3 or more goals46%
4 or more goals25%
5 or more goals11%
Exactly
0 goals9%
1 goal19%
2 goals26%
3 goals21%
4 goals14%
5 goals7%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedBolivia: 1 or more83%
Bolivia: 2 or more52%
Bolivia: 3 or more26%
Gambia: 1 or more54%
Gambia: 2 or more18%
Gambia: 3 or more4%
Both teams score45%
At least one team does not score55%
Winning margin
TestedBolivia by 3 or more16%
Bolivia by 219%
Bolivia by 125%
Draw25%
Gambia by 111%
Gambia by 24%
Gambia by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedBolivia win or draw85%
Either team wins (no draw)75%
Gambia win or draw40%
Clean sheets
TestedBolivia keep a clean sheet46%
Gambia keep a clean sheet17%
Bolivia win without conceding38%
Gambia win without conceding9%
No goals at all9%
The first goal
Model estimateBolivia score first64%
Gambia score first28%
No goals9%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1530%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Bolivia goals down, Gambia goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | · |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half68%
A goal in the second half75%
Bolivia ahead at half-time44%
Level at half-time41%
Gambia ahead at half-time15%
Bolivia win the second half49%
Second half level36%
Gambia win the second half16%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves27%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateBolivia ahead at half-time, Bolivia win38%
Level at half-time, Bolivia win19%
Gambia ahead at half-time, Bolivia win3%
Bolivia ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw16%
Gambia ahead at half-time, draw4%
Bolivia ahead at half-time, Gambia win1%
Level at half-time, Gambia win6%
Gambia ahead at half-time, Gambia win8%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
BoliviaGambia
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works