- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Ukraine v Hungary
51%Ukraine
28%Draw
21%Hungary
Ukraine ahead.
TestedUkraine win about 51 times in 100. The other 49: a draw (28) or a Hungary win (21).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:45 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals43%
Both teams score47%
Expected goals1.5 v 0.9
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals70%
3 or more goals43%
4 or more goals22%
5 or more goals10%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedUkraine: 1 or more78%
Ukraine: 2 or more45%
Ukraine: 3 or more19%
Hungary: 1 or more59%
Hungary: 2 or more22%
Hungary: 3 or more6%
Both teams score47%
At least one team does not score53%
Winning margin
TestedUkraine by 3 or more11%
Ukraine by 216%
Ukraine by 124%
Draw28%
Hungary by 114%
Hungary by 25%
Hungary by 3 or more2%
Result combinations
TestedUkraine win or draw79%
Either team wins (no draw)72%
Hungary win or draw49%
Clean sheets
TestedUkraine keep a clean sheet41%
Hungary keep a clean sheet22%
Ukraine win without conceding31%
Hungary win without conceding12%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateUkraine score first57%
Hungary score first33%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Ukraine goals down, Hungary goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | · |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half66%
A goal in the second half74%
Ukraine ahead at half-time37%
Level at half-time44%
Hungary ahead at half-time19%
Ukraine win the second half41%
Second half level40%
Hungary win the second half19%
More goals in the first half29%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateUkraine ahead at half-time, Ukraine win31%
Level at half-time, Ukraine win17%
Hungary ahead at half-time, Ukraine win2%
Ukraine ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw18%
Hungary ahead at half-time, draw5%
Ukraine ahead at half-time, Hungary win1%
Level at half-time, Hungary win8%
Hungary ahead at half-time, Hungary win12%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
UkraineHungary
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works