- National teams
- African Cup of Nations qualification
Angola v Malawi
65%Angola
22%Draw
13%Malawi
Angola, clearly.
TestedAngola win about 65 times in 100. The other 35: a draw (22) or a Malawi win (13).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:45 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals48%
Both teams score44%
Expected goals1.9 v 0.7
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals92%
2 or more goals74%
3 or more goals48%
4 or more goals27%
5 or more goals12%
Exactly
0 goals8%
1 goal18%
2 goals26%
3 goals22%
4 goals14%
5 goals7%
6 or more goals5%
Goals by team
TestedAngola: 1 or more85%
Angola: 2 or more56%
Angola: 3 or more30%
Malawi: 1 or more51%
Malawi: 2 or more16%
Malawi: 3 or more4%
Both teams score44%
At least one team does not score56%
Winning margin
TestedAngola by 3 or more19%
Angola by 220%
Angola by 125%
Draw23%
Malawi by 19%
Malawi by 23%
Malawi by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedAngola win or draw87%
Either team wins (no draw)77%
Malawi win or draw35%
Clean sheets
TestedAngola keep a clean sheet49%
Malawi keep a clean sheet15%
Angola win without conceding41%
Malawi win without conceding7%
No goals at all8%
The first goal
Model estimateAngola score first67%
Malawi score first25%
No goals8%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1531%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Angola goals down, Malawi goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.6 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | · |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | · |
| 3 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half69%
A goal in the second half75%
Angola ahead at half-time46%
Level at half-time40%
Malawi ahead at half-time13%
Angola win the second half51%
Second half level36%
Malawi win the second half13%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half43%
Same goals in both halves26%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateAngola ahead at half-time, Angola win42%
Level at half-time, Angola win20%
Malawi ahead at half-time, Angola win3%
Angola ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw15%
Malawi ahead at half-time, draw4%
Angola ahead at half-time, Malawi win1%
Level at half-time, Malawi win5%
Malawi ahead at half-time, Malawi win7%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
AngolaMalawi
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works