- National teams
- CONCACAF Nations League
Montserrat v Turks and Caicos Islands
77%Montserrat
16%Draw
7%Turks and Caicos Islands
Montserrat, clearly.
TestedMontserrat win about 77 times in 100. The other 23: a draw (16) or a Turks and Caicos Islands win (7).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:45 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals56%
Both teams score40%
Expected goals2.4 v 0.6
Most likely score2-015% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals94%
2 or more goals79%
3 or more goals56%
4 or more goals34%
5 or more goals18%
Exactly
0 goals6%
1 goal15%
2 goals23%
3 goals22%
4 goals17%
5 goals10%
6 or more goals8%
Goals by team
TestedMontserrat: 1 or more91%
Montserrat: 2 or more68%
Montserrat: 3 or more42%
Turks and Caicos Islands: 1 or more44%
Turks and Caicos Islands: 2 or more11%
Turks and Caicos Islands: 3 or more2%
Both teams score40%
At least one team does not score60%
Winning margin
TestedMontserrat by 3 or more32%
Montserrat by 223%
Montserrat by 123%
Draw16%
Turks and Caicos Islands by 15%
Turks and Caicos Islands by 21%
Turks and Caicos Islands by 3 or more0%
Result combinations
TestedMontserrat win or draw93%
Either team wins (no draw)84%
Turks and Caicos Islands win or draw23%
Clean sheets
TestedMontserrat keep a clean sheet56%
Turks and Caicos Islands keep a clean sheet9%
Montserrat win without conceding51%
Turks and Caicos Islands win without conceding4%
No goals at all6%
The first goal
Model estimateMontserrat score first76%
Turks and Caicos Islands score first18%
No goals6%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1534%
Minutes 16-3023%
Minutes 31-45+17%
Minutes 46-6010%
Minutes 61-756%
Minutes 76-90+5%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Montserrat goals down, Turks and Caicos Islands goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 1 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · |
| 2 | 14.7 | 8.4 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · |
| 3 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half73%
A goal in the second half80%
Montserrat ahead at half-time57%
Level at half-time35%
Turks and Caicos Islands ahead at half-time8%
Montserrat win the second half62%
Second half level29%
Turks and Caicos Islands win the second half9%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half44%
Same goals in both halves25%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateMontserrat ahead at half-time, Montserrat win54%
Level at half-time, Montserrat win21%
Turks and Caicos Islands ahead at half-time, Montserrat win2%
Montserrat ahead at half-time, draw3%
Level at half-time, draw11%
Turks and Caicos Islands ahead at half-time, draw3%
Montserrat ahead at half-time, Turks and Caicos Islands win0%
Level at half-time, Turks and Caicos Islands win3%
Turks and Caicos Islands ahead at half-time, Turks and Caicos Islands win3%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
MontserratTurks and Caicos Islands
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works