- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Switzerland v North Macedonia
88%Switzerland
9%Draw
3%North Macedonia
Switzerland, clearly.
TestedSwitzerland win about 88 times in 100. The other 12: a draw (9) or a North Macedonia win (3).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:59 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals69%
Both teams score34%
Expected goals3.1 v 0.4
Most likely score3-014% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals97%
2 or more goals87%
3 or more goals69%
4 or more goals47%
5 or more goals28%
Exactly
0 goals3%
1 goal10%
2 goals18%
3 goals21%
4 goals19%
5 goals13%
6 or more goals15%
Goals by team
TestedSwitzerland: 1 or more95%
Switzerland: 2 or more81%
Switzerland: 3 or more60%
North Macedonia: 1 or more35%
North Macedonia: 2 or more7%
North Macedonia: 3 or more1%
Both teams score34%
At least one team does not score66%
Winning margin
TestedSwitzerland by 3 or more51%
Switzerland by 221%
Switzerland by 116%
Draw9%
North Macedonia by 12%
North Macedonia by 20%
North Macedonia by 3 or more0%
Result combinations
TestedSwitzerland win or draw97%
Either team wins (no draw)91%
North Macedonia win or draw12%
Clean sheets
TestedSwitzerland keep a clean sheet64%
North Macedonia keep a clean sheet5%
Switzerland win without conceding61%
North Macedonia win without conceding1%
No goals at all3%
The first goal
Model estimateSwitzerland score first85%
North Macedonia score first12%
No goals3%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1540%
Minutes 16-3024%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-609%
Minutes 61-755%
Minutes 76-90+3%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Switzerland goals down, North Macedonia goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | · | · | · |
| 1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | · | · |
| 2 | 13.9 | 6.0 | 1.4 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 3 | 14.4 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 4 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half80%
A goal in the second half85%
Switzerland ahead at half-time68%
Level at half-time27%
North Macedonia ahead at half-time5%
Switzerland win the second half74%
Second half level21%
North Macedonia win the second half5%
More goals in the first half32%
More goals in the second half46%
Same goals in both halves22%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateSwitzerland ahead at half-time, Switzerland win67%
Level at half-time, Switzerland win20%
North Macedonia ahead at half-time, Switzerland win2%
Switzerland ahead at half-time, draw2%
Level at half-time, draw6%
North Macedonia ahead at half-time, draw2%
Switzerland ahead at half-time, North Macedonia win0%
Level at half-time, North Macedonia win1%
North Macedonia ahead at half-time, North Macedonia win1%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
SwitzerlandNorth Macedonia
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works