All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 8 league matches of Racing Santander since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 62 times in 100; it said 49. Draws: said 26, happened 25 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches8each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened62 in 100Vesta said 49
Draws25 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match4.50Vesta expected 2.79
Likeliest score happened0 in 100Vesta said 14
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Racing Santander 2-2 Villarreal
Sun 16 Aug 2026 · La Liga23 in 100- Racing Santander 2-2 Valencia
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · La Liga28 in 100 
Getafe 1-0 Racing SantanderSun 23 Aug 2026 · La Liga33 in 100
Celta Vigo 5-0 Racing SantanderSat 19 Sep 2026 · La Liga39 in 100
Rayo Vallecano 3-2 Racing SantanderSat 5 Sep 2026 · La Liga40 in 100- Racing Santander 2-1 Alaves
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · La Liga40 in 100 - Racing Santander 3-2 Elche
Fri 28 Aug 2026 · La Liga55 in 100 
Barcelona 7-2 Racing SantanderWed 16 Sep 2026 · La Liga84 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not winWhich clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Getafe | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7 |
  Celta Vigo | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
  Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
  Barcelona | 1 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
  Valencia | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | −0.2 |
  Elche | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | −0.8 |
  Villarreal | 1 | 1 | 2.1 | −1.1 |
  Alaves | 1 | 0 | 1.2 | −1.2 |
  Racing Santander | 8 | 8 | 9.7 | −1.7 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander | 8 | 8 | 9.7 | −1.7 |
| Alaves | 1 | 0 | 1.2 | −1.2 |
| Villarreal | 1 | 1 | 2.1 | −1.1 |
| Elche | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | −0.8 |
| Valencia | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | −0.2 |
| Barcelona | 1 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Celta Vigo | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Getafe | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Racing Santander's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | 8 | 49 | 62 | 26 | 25 | 2.79 | 4.50 | 0.180 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.