All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 350 league matches of Celta Vigo since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 47 times in 100; it said 48. Draws: said 27, happened 29 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches350each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened47 in 100Vesta said 48
Draws29 in 100Vesta said 27
Goals a match2.71Vesta expected 2.64
Likeliest score happened14 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 80 | 16.3 | 15.0 | −1.3 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 452 | 26.2 | 26.1 | −0.1 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 240 | 34.1 | 36.2 | +2.2 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 138 | 44.9 | 44.2 | −0.7 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 83 | 54.0 | 50.6 | −3.4 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 28 | 64.0 | 60.7 | −3.3 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Barcelona 2-2 Celta Vigo
Sat 2 Dec 2017 · La Liga7 in 100- Barcelona 1-2 Celta VigoSun 16 May 2021 · La Liga9 in 100
Real Madrid 0-2 Celta VigoSun 7 Dec 2025 · La Liga11 in 100
Villarreal 1-3 Celta VigoSun 24 Nov 2019 · La Liga13 in 100- Real Madrid 2-2 Celta VigoSun 16 Feb 2020 · La Liga15 in 100
- Celta Vigo 0-3 Real Oviedo
Sun 12 Apr 2026 · La Liga15 in 100 - Celta Vigo 2-1 BarcelonaSun 4 Jun 2023 · La Liga16 in 100
- Celta Vigo 2-0 BarcelonaSat 4 May 2019 · La Liga17 in 100
- Celta Vigo 0-2 Espanyol
Sat 12 Apr 2025 · La Liga17 in 100 - Celta Vigo 2-2 BarcelonaTue 17 Apr 2018 · La Liga19 in 100
- Celta Vigo 0-2 Getafe
Sun 17 Aug 2025 · La Liga19 in 100 
Athletic Club 0-2 Celta VigoSun 17 Apr 2022 · La Liga19 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Barcelona 2-2 Celta VigoSat 2 Dec 2017 · home win said90 in 100
- Real Madrid 2-2 Celta VigoSun 16 Feb 2020 · home win said79 in 100
- Barcelona 1-2 Celta VigoSun 16 May 2021 · home win said75 in 100
- Real Madrid 0-2 Celta VigoSun 7 Dec 2025 · home win said70 in 100
- Celta Vigo 1-1 Las Palmas
Mon 31 Mar 2025 · home win said68 in 100 - Celta Vigo 2-2 BarcelonaTue 17 Apr 2018 · away win said68 in 100
- Villarreal 1-3 Celta VigoSun 24 Nov 2019 · home win said67 in 100
Atletico Madrid 1-1 Celta VigoSat 15 Feb 2025 · home win said65 in 100
Sevilla 1-1 Celta VigoFri 30 Aug 2019 · home win said65 in 100- Celta Vigo 2-2 Real MadridSun 7 Jan 2018 · away win said64 in 100
- Celta Vigo 2-0 BarcelonaSat 4 May 2019 · away win said64 in 100
- Celta Vigo 0-3 Real OviedoSun 12 Apr 2026 · home win said62 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Real Madrid | 18 | 47 | 38.0 | +9.0 |
  Espanyol | 14 | 22 | 16.6 | +5.4 |
  Valencia | 19 | 32 | 26.9 | +5.1 |
  Osasuna | 15 | 24 | 19.3 | +4.7 |
  Atletico Madrid | 18 | 38 | 34.0 | +4.0 |
  Real Sociedad | 19 | 34 | 30.3 | +3.7 |
  Getafe | 19 | 29 | 25.4 | +3.6 |
  Mallorca | 12 | 16 | 13.3 | +2.7 |
 Real Oviedo | 2 | 4 | 1.6 | +2.4 |
  Malaga | 3 | 5 | 3.4 | +1.6 |
  Leganes | 8 | 11 | 9.5 | +1.5 |
  Cadiz | 8 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Celta Vigo | 350 | 427 | 448.0 | −21.0 |
  Barcelona | 18 | 35 | 40.2 | −5.2 |
  Sevilla | 18 | 23 | 28.2 | −5.2 |
  SD Huesca | 4 | 1 | 4.8 | −3.8 |
  Granada | 8 | 6 | 9.4 | −3.4 |
  Eibar | 8 | 9 | 12.0 | −3.0 |
  Real Betis | 18 | 24 | 26.6 | −2.6 |
  Las Palmas | 6 | 4 | 6.4 | −2.4 |
  Athletic Club | 19 | 28 | 29.5 | −1.5 |
  Deportivo La Coruna | 2 | 1 | 2.4 | −1.4 |
  Alaves | 16 | 18 | 19.4 | −1.4 |
  Racing Santander | 1 | 0 | 1.2 | −1.2 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Celta Vigo's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | 8 | 42 | 12 | 30 | 62 | 2.46 | 1.75 | 0.199 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | 38 | 47 | 34 | 28 | 32 | 2.63 | 2.66 | 0.241 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 58 | 27 | 18 | 2.66 | 3.05 | 0.207 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 55 | 27 | 29 | 2.64 | 2.71 | 0.187 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | 38 | 47 | 45 | 28 | 26 | 2.45 | 2.53 | 0.209 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | 38 | 47 | 45 | 28 | 26 | 2.55 | 2.26 | 0.205 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | 38 | 46 | 58 | 28 | 29 | 2.42 | 2.95 | 0.195 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 34 | 26 | 42 | 2.66 | 2.26 | 0.219 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | 38 | 50 | 42 | 25 | 29 | 2.88 | 3.03 | 0.214 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | 38 | 51 | 58 | 25 | 26 | 2.91 | 3.13 | 0.200 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.