All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 312 league matches of Alaves since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 53 times in 100; it said 49. Draws: said 27, happened 24 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches312each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened53 in 100Vesta said 49
Draws24 in 100Vesta said 27
Goals a match2.40Vesta expected 2.54
Likeliest score happened13 in 100Vesta said 14
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 20 | 7.1 | 0.0 | −7.1 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 99 | 15.9 | 20.2 | +4.3 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 354 | 26.4 | 22.3 | −4.1 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 226 | 33.7 | 35.8 | +2.2 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 120 | 44.5 | 47.5 | +3.0 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 62 | 54.7 | 51.6 | −3.1 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 36 | 64.5 | 69.4 | +5.0 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Real Madrid 1-2 Alaves
Sat 28 Nov 2020 · La Liga10 in 100- Alaves 2-1 Villarreal
Sat 30 Apr 2022 · La Liga13 in 100 
Girona 2-3 AlavesMon 4 Dec 2017 · La Liga13 in 100- Alaves 1-0 Real MadridSat 6 Oct 2018 · La Liga13 in 100
- Alaves 1-0 Atletico Madrid
Sat 25 Sep 2021 · La Liga14 in 100 
Barcelona 1-1 AlavesSat 30 Oct 2021 · La Liga16 in 100- Villarreal 1-2 AlavesSat 10 Feb 2018 · La Liga16 in 100
- Alaves 2-3 Real Valladolid
Fri 18 Oct 2024 · La Liga16 in 100 
Levante 0-2 AlavesSat 30 Sep 2017 · La Liga16 in 100
Athletic Club 0-1 AlavesSat 13 Sep 2025 · La Liga16 in 100- Alaves 1-0 BarcelonaWed 13 May 2026 · La Liga18 in 100
- Alaves 2-1 VillarrealWed 21 Apr 2021 · La Liga18 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Barcelona 1-1 AlavesSat 30 Oct 2021 · home win said77 in 100
- Real Madrid 1-2 AlavesSat 28 Nov 2020 · home win said70 in 100
Sevilla 1-1 AlavesSun 2 Feb 2020 · home win said68 in 100- Alaves 1-0 Real MadridSat 6 Oct 2018 · away win said68 in 100
- Alaves 2-1 VillarrealSat 30 Apr 2022 · away win said65 in 100
- Girona 2-3 AlavesMon 4 Dec 2017 · home win said65 in 100
- Sevilla 2-2 AlavesSat 20 Nov 2021 · home win said64 in 100
- Villarreal 1-1 AlavesSun 22 Oct 2023 · home win said63 in 100
- Alaves 1-1 BarcelonaSat 31 Oct 2020 · away win said62 in 100
- Alaves 1-0 Atletico MadridSat 25 Sep 2021 · away win said61 in 100
- Villarreal 1-2 AlavesSat 10 Feb 2018 · home win said60 in 100
- Alaves 1-0 BarcelonaWed 13 May 2026 · away win said60 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Osasuna | 13 | 28 | 19.0 | +9.0 |
  Granada | 8 | 18 | 11.2 | +6.8 |
  Real Madrid | 16 | 42 | 36.2 | +5.8 |
  Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 22 | 16.2 | +5.8 |
  Atletico Madrid | 17 | 39 | 34.3 | +4.7 |
  Barcelona | 16 | 41 | 36.8 | +4.2 |
  Celta Vigo | 16 | 27 | 24.1 | +2.9 |
  Mallorca | 10 | 15 | 13.1 | +1.9 |
  Cadiz | 6 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 |
  Leganes | 8 | 12 | 10.5 | +1.5 |
  Racing Santander | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
  Real Betis | 16 | 27 | 25.8 | +1.2 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Villarreal | 17 | 24 | 30.7 | −6.7 |
  Levante | 12 | 11 | 16.9 | −5.9 |
  Real Valladolid | 8 | 7 | 10.3 | −3.3 |
  Sevilla | 16 | 24 | 27.2 | −3.2 |
  Real Sociedad | 16 | 25 | 27.7 | −2.7 |
  SD Huesca | 4 | 3 | 5.7 | −2.7 |
  Malaga | 2 | 0 | 2.7 | −2.7 |
  Eibar | 8 | 10 | 12.5 | −2.5 |
  Athletic Club | 17 | 27 | 29.4 | −2.4 |
  Almeria | 2 | 0 | 2.2 | −2.2 |
  Las Palmas | 6 | 5 | 6.9 | −1.9 |
 Real Oviedo | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | −1.0 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | 8 | 45 | 50 | 29 | 25 | 2.52 | 2.50 | 0.222 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | 38 | 46 | 39 | 28 | 26 | 2.49 | 2.63 | 0.227 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 47 | 28 | 32 | 2.50 | 2.26 | 0.201 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | 38 | 49 | 58 | 27 | 26 | 2.62 | 2.16 | 0.185 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | 38 | 50 | 58 | 27 | 18 | 2.51 | 2.53 | 0.210 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | 38 | 49 | 50 | 28 | 29 | 2.38 | 2.45 | 0.194 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | 38 | 50 | 63 | 26 | 24 | 2.56 | 2.45 | 0.183 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | 38 | 50 | 45 | 26 | 29 | 2.57 | 2.34 | 0.216 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | 38 | 52 | 66 | 25 | 5 | 2.68 | 2.37 | 0.215 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.