All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 350 league matches of Valencia since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 48 times in 100; it said 48. Draws: said 27, happened 30 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches350each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened48 in 100Vesta said 48
Draws30 in 100Vesta said 27
Goals a match2.53Vesta expected 2.62
Likeliest score happened16 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 88 | 15.8 | 12.5 | −3.3 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 443 | 26.2 | 27.1 | +0.9 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 243 | 34.0 | 32.9 | −1.0 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 145 | 44.5 | 42.1 | −2.4 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 68 | 54.3 | 52.9 | −1.4 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 40 | 63.9 | 77.5 | +13.6 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Real Madrid 1-2 Valencia
Sat 5 Apr 2025 · La Liga9 in 100- Real Madrid 2-2 ValenciaSun 27 Aug 2017 · La Liga10 in 100
- Valencia 4-1 Real MadridSun 8 Nov 2020 · La Liga13 in 100
- Valencia 0-1 Cadiz
Fri 6 Jan 2023 · La Liga15 in 100 
Real Sociedad 0-1 ValenciaTue 29 Sep 2020 · La Liga16 in 100- Valencia 3-1 Barcelona
Sat 23 May 2026 · La Liga18 in 100 - Valencia 1-1 BarcelonaSun 26 Nov 2017 · La Liga18 in 100
- Barcelona 2-2 ValenciaSat 2 Feb 2019 · La Liga19 in 100
- Barcelona 2-2 ValenciaSat 19 Dec 2020 · La Liga19 in 100
- Valencia 2-2 Elche
Sat 15 Oct 2022 · La Liga19 in 100 - Valencia 1-2 Mallorca
Sat 22 Oct 2022 · La Liga19 in 100 - Valencia 0-1 Girona
Sat 3 Nov 2018 · La Liga20 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Real Madrid 2-2 ValenciaSun 27 Aug 2017 · home win said85 in 100
- Real Madrid 1-2 ValenciaSat 5 Apr 2025 · home win said74 in 100
- Valencia 2-2 ElcheSat 15 Oct 2022 · home win said71 in 100
- Barcelona 2-2 ValenciaSat 19 Dec 2020 · home win said70 in 100
- Barcelona 2-2 ValenciaSat 2 Feb 2019 · home win said68 in 100
- Valencia 4-1 Real MadridSun 8 Nov 2020 · away win said66 in 100
- Valencia 1-1 BarcelonaSun 26 Nov 2017 · away win said66 in 100
Villarreal 1-1 ValenciaSat 15 Feb 2025 · home win said64 in 100- Valencia 0-0 Espanyol
Sun 17 Feb 2019 · home win said64 in 100 - Valencia 0-1 CadizFri 6 Jan 2023 · home win said62 in 100
- Valencia 1-1 Real Valladolid
Sat 12 Jan 2019 · home win said61 in 100 - Real Sociedad 0-1 ValenciaTue 29 Sep 2020 · home win said60 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Valencia | 350 | 469 | 460.7 | +8.3 |
  Atletico Madrid | 18 | 41 | 33.2 | +7.8 |
 Real Oviedo | 2 | 6 | 2.2 | +3.8 |
  Las Palmas | 6 | 9 | 6.1 | +2.9 |
  Cadiz | 8 | 12 | 9.1 | +2.9 |
  Mallorca | 12 | 17 | 14.4 | +2.6 |
  Real Betis | 19 | 29 | 26.7 | +2.3 |
  Villarreal | 18 | 31 | 28.8 | +2.2 |
  Eibar | 8 | 12 | 10.1 | +1.9 |
  Almeria | 4 | 5 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
  Rayo Vallecano | 12 | 16 | 15.4 | +0.6 |
  Girona | 12 | 16 | 15.8 | +0.2 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Real Sociedad | 19 | 22 | 28.9 | −6.9 |
  Levante | 12 | 7 | 13.8 | −6.8 |
  Athletic Club | 18 | 22 | 28.0 | −6.0 |
  Celta Vigo | 19 | 20 | 24.9 | −4.9 |
  Granada | 8 | 5 | 9.8 | −4.8 |
  Sevilla | 19 | 25 | 28.8 | −3.8 |
  Espanyol | 14 | 13 | 15.7 | −2.7 |
  SD Huesca | 4 | 2 | 4.6 | −2.6 |
  Real Valladolid | 10 | 8 | 10.2 | −2.2 |
  Malaga | 2 | 0 | 2.1 | −2.1 |
  Leganes | 8 | 7 | 9.0 | −2.0 |
  Real Madrid | 18 | 36 | 37.6 | −1.6 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | 8 | 45 | 38 | 29 | 25 | 2.56 | 2.62 | 0.239 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | 38 | 46 | 47 | 28 | 26 | 2.53 | 2.66 | 0.211 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 45 | 28 | 34 | 2.49 | 2.58 | 0.192 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 50 | 28 | 26 | 2.53 | 2.24 | 0.202 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 50 | 27 | 24 | 2.60 | 2.29 | 0.221 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | 38 | 46 | 37 | 28 | 39 | 2.56 | 2.66 | 0.179 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | 38 | 47 | 45 | 27 | 34 | 2.54 | 2.71 | 0.203 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 55 | 26 | 29 | 2.72 | 2.61 | 0.184 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | 38 | 49 | 39 | 26 | 42 | 2.66 | 2.26 | 0.201 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | 38 | 52 | 63 | 24 | 18 | 2.96 | 2.71 | 0.196 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.