All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 235 league matches of Rayo Vallecano since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 45 times in 100; it said 48. Draws: said 27, happened 30 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches235each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened45 in 100Vesta said 48
Draws30 in 100Vesta said 27
Goals a match2.44Vesta expected 2.55
Likeliest score happened14 in 100Vesta said 14
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 64 | 16.6 | 17.2 | +0.5 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 275 | 26.5 | 28.4 | +1.8 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 174 | 33.6 | 35.1 | +1.5 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 98 | 44.0 | 35.7 | −8.3 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 53 | 54.4 | 50.9 | −3.5 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Barcelona 0-1 Rayo Vallecano
Sun 24 Apr 2022 · La Liga8 in 100- Rayo Vallecano 0-4 Espanyol
Fri 4 Apr 2025 · La Liga14 in 100 - Rayo Vallecano 2-1 BarcelonaWed 26 Apr 2023 · La Liga15 in 100
Real Madrid 0-0 Rayo VallecanoSun 5 Nov 2023 · La Liga15 in 100- Rayo Vallecano 1-3 Las Palmas
Fri 8 Nov 2024 · La Liga16 in 100 - Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Real MadridSun 28 Apr 2019 · La Liga17 in 100
- Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Almeria
Sun 5 May 2024 · La Liga18 in 100 - Rayo Vallecano 3-2 Real MadridMon 7 Nov 2022 · La Liga19 in 100
Real Sociedad 1-2 Rayo VallecanoSun 18 Aug 2024 · La Liga19 in 100- Barcelona 0-0 Rayo VallecanoSat 13 Aug 2022 · La Liga19 in 100
Villarreal 0-1 Rayo VallecanoMon 30 Jan 2023 · La Liga20 in 100- Rayo Vallecano 1-5 Alaves
Sat 22 Sep 2018 · La Liga20 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Real Madrid 0-0 Rayo VallecanoSun 5 Nov 2023 · home win said77 in 100
- Barcelona 0-1 Rayo VallecanoSun 24 Apr 2022 · home win said76 in 100
- Barcelona 0-0 Rayo VallecanoSat 13 Aug 2022 · home win said70 in 100
Atletico Madrid 1-1 Rayo VallecanoTue 18 Oct 2022 · home win said63 in 100- Rayo Vallecano 1-1 BarcelonaSun 31 Aug 2025 · away win said61 in 100
- Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Real MadridSun 28 Apr 2019 · away win said61 in 100
- Rayo Vallecano 2-1 BarcelonaWed 26 Apr 2023 · away win said61 in 100
- Rayo Vallecano 0-4 EspanyolFri 4 Apr 2025 · home win said59 in 100
- Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Real MadridSun 18 Feb 2024 · away win said58 in 100
- Rayo Vallecano 0-0 Real MadridSun 9 Nov 2025 · away win said58 in 100
- Rayo Vallecano 3-2 Real MadridMon 7 Nov 2022 · away win said57 in 100
- Rayo Vallecano 0-1 AlmeriaSun 5 May 2024 · home win said57 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Mallorca | 10 | 20 | 11.5 | +8.5 |
  Sevilla | 13 | 26 | 18.5 | +7.5 |
  Athletic Club | 12 | 27 | 19.8 | +7.2 |
  Atletico Madrid | 12 | 29 | 22.8 | +6.2 |
  Osasuna | 11 | 20 | 14.4 | +5.6 |
  Elche | 6 | 9 | 5.8 | +3.2 |
  Espanyol | 11 | 16 | 13.3 | +2.7 |
  Real Betis | 12 | 21 | 18.4 | +2.6 |
  Leganes | 4 | 7 | 4.7 | +2.3 |
  Almeria | 4 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 |
  Girona | 10 | 16 | 14.4 | +1.6 |
  Las Palmas | 4 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Rayo Vallecano | 235 | 271 | 294.0 | −23.0 |
  Barcelona | 13 | 24 | 29.0 | −5.0 |
  Getafe | 12 | 12 | 16.3 | −4.3 |
  Valencia | 12 | 13 | 17.1 | −4.1 |
  Granada | 4 | 1 | 4.8 | −3.8 |
  Alaves | 11 | 10 | 13.6 | −3.6 |
  Real Madrid | 13 | 25 | 28.4 | −3.4 |
  Real Valladolid | 6 | 3 | 6.2 | −3.2 |
  Real Sociedad | 12 | 16 | 18.9 | −2.9 |
  Celta Vigo | 12 | 15 | 16.8 | −1.8 |
  SD Huesca | 2 | 1 | 2.7 | −1.7 |
  Racing Santander | 1 | 0 | 1.2 | −1.2 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Rayo Vallecano's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | 7 | 52 | 71 | 25 | 29 | 2.82 | 3.86 | 0.143 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | 38 | 47 | 39 | 28 | 37 | 2.51 | 2.24 | 0.196 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 50 | 29 | 34 | 2.36 | 2.26 | 0.205 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 39 | 28 | 37 | 2.53 | 2.03 | 0.212 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | 38 | 47 | 37 | 28 | 26 | 2.49 | 2.58 | 0.232 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | 38 | 46 | 47 | 28 | 24 | 2.53 | 2.34 | 0.218 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | 38 | 50 | 50 | 25 | 21 | 2.84 | 2.92 | 0.201 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.