All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 350 league matches of Barcelona since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 70 times in 100; it said 66. Draws: said 19, happened 17 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches350each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened70 in 100Vesta said 66
Draws17 in 100Vesta said 19
Goals a match3.24Vesta expected 3.25
Likeliest score happened10 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 155 | 6.5 | 8.4 | +1.9 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 285 | 15.2 | 14.4 | −0.9 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 239 | 24.2 | 18.0 | −6.2 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 30 | 34.8 | 46.7 | +11.9 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 41 | 45.3 | 56.1 | +10.8 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 68 | 55.1 | 58.8 | +3.7 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 84 | 64.9 | 69.0 | +4.1 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 89 | 75.3 | 77.5 | +2.3 |
| 80–90 in 100 | 49 | 84.4 | 81.6 | −2.8 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Barcelona 0-1 Leganes
Sun 15 Dec 2024 · La Liga2 in 100- Barcelona 1-2 Las Palmas
Sat 30 Nov 2024 · La Liga4 in 100 - Barcelona 1-2 Granada
Thu 29 Apr 2021 · La Liga6 in 100 
Real Valladolid 3-1 BarcelonaTue 23 May 2023 · La Liga6 in 100- Barcelona 0-1 Cadiz
Mon 18 Apr 2022 · La Liga7 in 100 - Barcelona 3-5 Villarreal
Sat 27 Jan 2024 · La Liga7 in 100 - Barcelona 2-2 Celta Vigo
Sat 2 Dec 2017 · La Liga7 in 100 - Barcelona 0-1 Rayo Vallecano
Sun 24 Apr 2022 · La Liga8 in 100 - Barcelona 3-4 Real Betis
Sun 11 Nov 2018 · La Liga8 in 100 
Almeria 1-0 BarcelonaSun 26 Feb 2023 · La Liga9 in 100- Las Palmas 1-1 BarcelonaThu 1 Mar 2018 · La Liga9 in 100
- Barcelona 1-2 Celta VigoSun 16 May 2021 · La Liga9 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Barcelona 0-1 LeganesSun 15 Dec 2024 · home win said91 in 100
- Barcelona 2-2 Celta VigoSat 2 Dec 2017 · home win said90 in 100
- Las Palmas 1-1 BarcelonaThu 1 Mar 2018 · away win said87 in 100
- Barcelona 1-2 Las PalmasSat 30 Nov 2024 · home win said87 in 100
- Barcelona 2-2 Girona
Sun 23 Sep 2018 · home win said85 in 100 - Barcelona 1-1 Espanyol
Sat 31 Dec 2022 · home win said85 in 100 - Barcelona 3-3 GranadaSun 11 Feb 2024 · home win said83 in 100
- Barcelona 1-2 GranadaThu 29 Apr 2021 · home win said82 in 100
- Barcelona 3-5 VillarrealSat 27 Jan 2024 · home win said81 in 100
- Barcelona 0-0 Getafe
Sun 11 Feb 2018 · home win said81 in 100 - Barcelona 1-1 GranadaMon 20 Sep 2021 · home win said80 in 100
- Barcelona 1-1 CadizSun 21 Feb 2021 · home win said79 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Barcelona | 350 | 793 | 758.5 | +34.5 |
  Granada | 8 | 10 | 4.3 | +5.7 |
  Rayo Vallecano | 13 | 12 | 7.4 | +4.6 |
  Cadiz | 8 | 8 | 3.7 | +4.3 |
  Girona | 12 | 11 | 7.2 | +3.8 |
  Celta Vigo | 18 | 14 | 10.4 | +3.6 |
  Real Madrid | 18 | 26 | 22.9 | +3.1 |
  Leganes | 8 | 6 | 3.4 | +2.6 |
  Las Palmas | 6 | 4 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
  Levante | 13 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 |
  Almeria | 4 | 3 | 1.4 | +1.6 |
  Osasuna | 14 | 8 | 7.8 | +0.2 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Athletic Club | 19 | 7 | 14.6 | −7.6 |
  Sevilla | 19 | 7 | 13.8 | −6.8 |
  Atletico Madrid | 18 | 13 | 19.6 | −6.6 |
  Real Sociedad | 18 | 10 | 14.6 | −4.6 |
  Mallorca | 12 | 1 | 5.6 | −4.6 |
  Villarreal | 18 | 10 | 13.8 | −3.8 |
  Getafe | 19 | 8 | 11.7 | −3.7 |
  Real Betis | 18 | 8 | 11.6 | −3.6 |
  Elche | 9 | 0 | 3.4 | −3.4 |
  Alaves | 16 | 5 | 8.4 | −3.4 |
  Eibar | 8 | 2 | 4.9 | −2.9 |
  Espanyol | 14 | 4 | 5.9 | −1.9 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Barcelona's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | 8 | 73 | 100 | 17 | 0 | 3.45 | 5.12 | 0.049 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | 38 | 68 | 84 | 19 | 3 | 3.44 | 3.45 | 0.139 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | 38 | 66 | 71 | 19 | 11 | 3.31 | 3.71 | 0.188 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | 38 | 63 | 68 | 21 | 18 | 3.10 | 3.24 | 0.155 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | 38 | 67 | 76 | 20 | 11 | 2.99 | 2.37 | 0.171 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | 38 | 61 | 53 | 22 | 26 | 2.94 | 2.79 | 0.201 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | 38 | 64 | 66 | 20 | 18 | 3.08 | 3.24 | 0.179 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | 38 | 61 | 66 | 21 | 18 | 3.10 | 3.26 | 0.156 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | 38 | 68 | 66 | 18 | 24 | 3.54 | 3.32 | 0.152 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | 38 | 76 | 71 | 14 | 24 | 3.70 | 3.37 | 0.114 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.