All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 350 league matches of Getafe since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 48 times in 100; it said 46. Draws: said 29, happened 30 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches350each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened48 in 100Vesta said 46
Draws30 in 100Vesta said 29
Goals a match2.04Vesta expected 2.31
Likeliest score happened16 in 100Vesta said 15
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 84 | 16.3 | 14.3 | −2.0 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 343 | 26.2 | 25.4 | −0.9 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 366 | 33.4 | 32.5 | −0.9 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 147 | 44.7 | 48.3 | +3.6 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 62 | 54.6 | 54.8 | +0.2 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 20 | 63.9 | 70.0 | +6.1 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Real Madrid 0-1 Getafe
Mon 2 Mar 2026 · La Liga9 in 100- Getafe 0-1 Levante
Sat 10 Mar 2018 · La Liga10 in 100 
Barcelona 0-0 GetafeSun 11 Feb 2018 · La Liga14 in 100- Getafe 0-1 LevanteSat 6 Oct 2018 · La Liga15 in 100
Athletic Club 0-1 GetafeSat 25 Oct 2025 · La Liga15 in 100- Getafe 1-3 Las Palmas
Sat 12 Apr 2025 · La Liga15 in 100 - Getafe 1-0 Real MadridSun 2 Jan 2022 · La Liga17 in 100
- Getafe 0-2 Leganes
Sat 30 Mar 2019 · La Liga18 in 100 - Getafe 1-0 BarcelonaSat 17 Oct 2020 · La Liga19 in 100
Real Sociedad 0-3 GetafeSun 26 Jan 2025 · La Liga19 in 100
Celta Vigo 0-2 GetafeSun 17 Aug 2025 · La Liga19 in 100
Real Betis 0-1 GetafeWed 24 May 2023 · La Liga20 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Barcelona 0-0 GetafeSun 11 Feb 2018 · home win said81 in 100
- Real Madrid 0-1 GetafeMon 2 Mar 2026 · home win said72 in 100
- Getafe 0-1 LevanteSat 10 Mar 2018 · home win said69 in 100
- Athletic Club 0-0 GetafeSun 20 Aug 2017 · home win said66 in 100
Atletico Madrid 1-1 GetafeSat 4 Feb 2023 · home win said65 in 100- Atletico Madrid 3-3 GetafeTue 19 Dec 2023 · home win said65 in 100
- Getafe 0-1 LevanteSat 6 Oct 2018 · home win said62 in 100
- Getafe 0-0 BarcelonaSun 16 Apr 2023 · away win said60 in 100
- Athletic Club 1-1 GetafeThu 15 Aug 2024 · home win said60 in 100
- Getafe 1-1 BarcelonaSat 18 Jan 2025 · away win said59 in 100
- Getafe 1-3 Las PalmasSat 12 Apr 2025 · home win said59 in 100
- Getafe 0-0 Real MadridSun 18 Apr 2021 · away win said59 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Atletico Madrid | 18 | 45 | 33.0 | +12.0 |
  Sevilla | 18 | 35 | 26.9 | +8.1 |
  Real Madrid | 18 | 44 | 37.6 | +6.4 |
  Villarreal | 18 | 35 | 28.9 | +6.1 |
  Levante | 12 | 19 | 13.3 | +5.7 |
  Espanyol | 14 | 21 | 16.8 | +4.2 |
  Real Valladolid | 10 | 13 | 10.2 | +2.8 |
  Barcelona | 19 | 44 | 41.3 | +2.7 |
  Elche | 8 | 11 | 8.6 | +2.4 |
  Rayo Vallecano | 12 | 18 | 16.0 | +2.0 |
  Almeria | 4 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 |
  Real Betis | 19 | 29 | 27.5 | +1.5 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Getafe | 350 | 431 | 444.5 | −13.5 |
  Athletic Club | 18 | 20 | 29.2 | −9.2 |
  Osasuna | 15 | 14 | 20.4 | −6.4 |
  Real Sociedad | 18 | 22 | 28.2 | −6.2 |
  Celta Vigo | 19 | 20 | 25.8 | −5.8 |
  Alaves | 17 | 17 | 20.7 | −3.7 |
  SD Huesca | 4 | 1 | 4.2 | −3.2 |
  Malaga | 3 | 0 | 3.0 | −3.0 |
  Eibar | 8 | 7 | 9.9 | −2.9 |
 Real Oviedo | 2 | 1 | 2.5 | −1.5 |
  Girona | 12 | 15 | 16.4 | −1.4 |
  Racing Santander | 1 | 0 | 1.4 | −1.4 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | 8 | 48 | 62 | 29 | 25 | 2.30 | 1.75 | 0.151 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | 38 | 45 | 50 | 30 | 16 | 2.21 | 1.84 | 0.240 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 45 | 29 | 24 | 2.31 | 1.92 | 0.223 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | 38 | 47 | 50 | 28 | 34 | 2.43 | 2.53 | 0.186 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | 38 | 46 | 45 | 30 | 32 | 2.25 | 2.08 | 0.213 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | 38 | 44 | 42 | 31 | 39 | 2.09 | 1.95 | 0.188 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | 38 | 45 | 47 | 30 | 29 | 2.18 | 1.87 | 0.202 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | 38 | 46 | 53 | 28 | 32 | 2.39 | 2.11 | 0.187 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | 38 | 46 | 45 | 28 | 37 | 2.39 | 2.18 | 0.189 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | 38 | 51 | 50 | 26 | 26 | 2.55 | 1.97 | 0.208 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.