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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 160 league matches of Elche since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 54 times in 100; it said 53. Draws: said 26, happened 29 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

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When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
0–10 in 100	25	7.1	4.0	−3.1
10–20 in 100	72	15.4	13.9	−1.6
20–30 in 100	157	25.9	27.4	+1.5
30–40 in 100	99	33.7	32.3	−1.4
40–50 in 100	42	44.2	38.1	−6.1
50–60 in 100	33	54.6	60.6	+6.0
60–70 in 100	30	64.7	66.7	+2.0

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

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Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Real Sociedad	9	25	16.6	+8.4
Elche	160	152	146.0	+6.0
Barcelona	9	27	22.2	+4.8
Real Betis	8	17	15.2	+1.8
Alaves	6	10	8.5	+1.5
Celta Vigo	9	17	15.6	+1.4
Racing Santander	1	3	1.9	+1.1
SD Huesca	2	4	3.2	+0.8
Granada	4	7	6.3	+0.7
Almeria	2	4	3.4	+0.6
Valencia	8	14	13.5	+0.5
Girona	4	7	7.1	−0.1

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Mallorca	6	5	8.9	−3.9
Eibar	2	0	3.6	−3.6
Cadiz	6	6	9.3	−3.3
Villarreal	8	14	17.1	−3.1
Sevilla	8	13	15.6	−2.6
Real Oviedo	2	0	2.5	−2.5
Athletic Club	9	15	17.5	−2.5
Espanyol	7	9	11.4	−2.4
Getafe	8	11	12.9	−1.9
Atletico Madrid	8	16	17.7	−1.7
Rayo Vallecano	6	9	10.6	−1.6
Osasuna	8	12	13.4	−1.4

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Elche's matches; the current season so far

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Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2026-27	La Liga	8	51	38	26	38	2.80	3.50	0.175
2025-26	La Liga	38	48	55	27	34	2.65	2.79	0.171
2022-23	La Liga	38	60	61	23	26	2.80	2.55	0.170
2021-22	La Liga	38	52	55	27	24	2.45	2.42	0.201
2020-21	La Liga	38	55	50	26	32	2.50	2.34	0.191

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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