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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 350 league matches of Villarreal since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 50 times in 100; it said 51. Draws: said 26, happened 25 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

Free
Matches350each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened50 in 100Vesta said 51
Draws25 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.91Vesta expected 2.80
Likeliest score happened14 in 100Vesta said 13

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right
00252550507575100100 Vesta said (in 100)
Chance bandChancesSaidHappenedGap
10–20 in 10013216.117.4+1.3
20–30 in 10045925.825.5−0.3
30–40 in 10015734.733.1−1.6
40–50 in 10013244.850.8+5.9
50–60 in 1008454.847.6−7.1
60–70 in 1006063.861.7−2.1

The biggest surprises

results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
  1. Barcelona 3-5 VillarrealSat 27 Jan 2024 · La Liga7 in 100
  2. Villarreal 1-2 Real ValladolidSat 15 Apr 2023 · La Liga7 in 100
  3. Real Madrid 0-1 VillarrealSat 13 Jan 2018 · La Liga8 in 100
  4. Barcelona 2-3 VillarrealSun 18 May 2025 · La Liga12 in 100
  5. Elche 1-0 VillarrealSun 16 Jan 2022 · La Liga12 in 100
  6. Elche 3-1 VillarrealSat 4 Feb 2023 · La Liga12 in 100
  7. Villarreal 1-2 EspanyolSun 19 Jan 2020 · La Liga13 in 100
  8. Villarreal 1-3 Celta VigoSun 24 Nov 2019 · La Liga13 in 100
  9. Alaves 2-1 VillarrealSat 30 Apr 2022 · La Liga13 in 100
  10. Real Madrid 2-3 VillarrealSat 8 Apr 2023 · La Liga14 in 100
  11. Cadiz 1-0 VillarrealSun 20 Mar 2022 · La Liga14 in 100
  12. Villarreal 2-3 SevillaWed 13 May 2026 · La Liga15 in 100

The surest calls that missed

the strongest favourites that did not win
  1. Barcelona 3-5 VillarrealSat 27 Jan 2024 · home win said81 in 100
  2. Villarreal 1-2 Real ValladolidSat 15 Apr 2023 · home win said79 in 100
  3. Real Madrid 0-1 VillarrealSat 13 Jan 2018 · home win said78 in 100
  4. Barcelona 2-3 VillarrealSun 18 May 2025 · home win said70 in 100
  5. Villarreal 1-2 EspanyolSun 19 Jan 2020 · home win said68 in 100
  6. Elche 1-0 VillarrealSun 16 Jan 2022 · away win said67 in 100
  7. Villarreal 1-3 Celta VigoSun 24 Nov 2019 · home win said67 in 100
  8. Elche 3-1 VillarrealSat 4 Feb 2023 · away win said67 in 100
  9. Real Madrid 2-3 VillarrealSat 8 Apr 2023 · home win said67 in 100
  10. Villarreal 0-0 ElcheSun 6 Dec 2020 · home win said67 in 100
  11. Elche 2-2 VillarrealSat 6 Feb 2021 · away win said66 in 100
  12. Alaves 2-1 VillarrealSat 30 Apr 2022 · away win said65 in 100

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
Underrated: more points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Alaves172416.0+8.0
Barcelona184336.3+6.7
Real Betis192721.8+5.2
Cadiz8106.6+3.4
Villarreal350549545.7+3.3
Elche885.2+2.8
Athletic Club182623.5+2.5
Celta Vigo182119.8+1.2
Deportivo La Coruna342.8+1.2
Osasuna141514.0+1.0
Mallorca121211.1+0.9
Las Palmas665.4+0.6
Overrated: fewer points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Getafe181419.9−5.9
Granada837.4−4.4
Almeria403.2−3.2
Espanyol141013.2−3.2
Atletico Madrid192830.7−2.7
Sevilla182123.7−2.7
Eibar879.7−2.7
Leganes868.4−2.4
Real Madrid193436.0−2.0
Valencia181920.6−1.6
Levante131011.5−1.5
Girona121314.3−1.3

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Villarreal's matches; the current season so far
CSV
SeasonLeagueMatchesLikeliest saidHappenedDraws saidDrawsGoals expectedGoalsRPS
2026-27La Liga8533825252.943.250.248
2025-26La Liga38516826162.833.110.176
2024-25La Liga38525825262.983.210.186
2023-24La Liga38514525292.983.420.233
2022-23La Liga38525526182.742.610.233
2021-22La Liga38524526292.652.630.227
2020-21La Liga38505026342.642.740.200
2019-20La Liga38504725162.872.950.232
2018-19La Liga38473726372.752.660.219
2017-18La Liga38505026182.752.820.238

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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