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  2. Serie A

Torino v Udinese

36%Torino
30%Draw
34%Udinese

Too close to call.

Tested

Out of 100: Torino 36, draw 30, Udinese 34. No result stands out.

Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:26 CEST, before kickoff.

3 or more goals44%
Both teams score51%
Expected goals1.2 v 1.2
Most likely score1-114% chance

Likely line-ups

Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoff
Torino5-3-1-16-2-1-1Udinese

Players to watch

Model estimate

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Numbers to expect

Forecast by Vesta

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.

Shots13.512.2
Shots on target4.04.0
Corners4.74.2
Fouls10.712.2
Yellow cards1.41.8

What's at stake

Model estimate

The chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.

What Torino v Udinese changes for both teams
Team and chanceNowTorino winDrawUdinese win
Torino
Bottom 315%11%15%19%
Udinese
Bottom 316%21%17%10%

Goals in the match

Tested
1 or more goals91%
2 or more goals70%
3 or more goals44%
4 or more goals24%
5 or more goals10%

Exactly

0 goals9%
1 goal20%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals4%

Goals by team

Tested
Torino: 1 or more72%
Torino: 2 or more35%
Torino: 3 or more13%
Udinese: 1 or more70%
Udinese: 2 or more34%
Udinese: 3 or more12%
Both teams score51%
At least one team does not score49%

Winning margin

Tested
Torino by 3 or more5%
Torino by 210%
Torino by 120%
Draw30%
Udinese by 120%
Udinese by 210%
Udinese by 3 or more5%

Result combinations

Tested
Torino win or draw66%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Udinese win or draw64%

Clean sheets

Tested
Torino keep a clean sheet30%
Udinese keep a clean sheet28%
Torino win without conceding21%
Udinese win without conceding19%
No goals at all9%

The first goal

Model estimate
Torino score first46%
Udinese score first45%
No goals9%

When it comes

Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6012%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%

Every score

Tested

Chance of each score in percent: Torino goals down, Udinese goals across.

Chance of each exact score
Home goals down, away goals across012345
09.210.05.92.40.70.2
110.414.37.43.00.90.2
26.47.75.61.90.60.1
32.73.32.00.90.20.1
40.81.00.60.30.1·
50.20.30.20.1··

Halves

Tested
A goal in the first half66%
A goal in the second half74%
Torino ahead at half-time28%
Level at half-time45%
Udinese ahead at half-time27%
Torino win the second half31%
Second half level39%
Udinese win the second half29%
More goals in the first half29%
More goals in the second half43%
Same goals in both halves29%

Half-time and full-time

Tested
Torino ahead at half-time, Torino win20%
Level at half-time, Torino win14%
Udinese ahead at half-time, Torino win2%
Torino ahead at half-time, draw6%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Udinese ahead at half-time, draw6%
Torino ahead at half-time, Udinese win2%
Level at half-time, Udinese win13%
Udinese ahead at half-time, Udinese win19%

When the goals come

Model estimate

Expected goals in each 15 minutes.

1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
TorinoUdinese

Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works

Every player's chances

Model estimate

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

Torino
Torino: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Giovanni Simeone6825%3%5%28%2.0
Nikola Vlasic8616%1%10%24%1.2
Che Adams bench3913%<1%5%18%1.0
Rolando Mandragora5310%<1%6%15%1.2
Kian Fitz-Jim777%<1%12%18%0.8
Eray Cömert645%<1%4%9%0.4
Pietro Comuzzo685%<1%1%6%0.4
Sandro Kulenovic bench104%<1%2%5%0.3
Saúl Coco803%<1%2%6%0.4
Daniel Bragança bench263%<1%4%7%0.4
Gvidas Gineitis563%<1%7%10%0.7
Alessio Cacciamani733%<1%8%11%0.3
Cesare Casadei bench143%<1%1%4%0.2
Emirhan Ilkhan bench142%<1%2%4%0.2
Niccolò Fortini562%<1%3%5%0.5
Rafik Belghali bench192%<1%2%4%0.2
Ardian Ismajli bench501%<1%2%3%0.2
Marcus Pedersen bench14<1%<1%2%2%0.1
Nathan Patterson bench14<1%<1%<1%1%0.1
Diego Mascardi bench36<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Lucas Perri54<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Udinese
Udinese: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Keinan Davis5319%2%10%27%1.2
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp8816%1%9%24%1.4
Idrissa Gueye bench3514%1%3%16%1.2
James Abankwah887%<1%3%11%0.5
Unai Gómez bench426%<1%5%11%0.8
Mergim Vojvoda866%<1%10%16%0.7
Nicolo Zaniolo bench276%<1%5%11%0.7
Vakoun Bayo bench165%<1%3%9%0.5
Hassane Kamara865%<1%8%13%0.8
Jesper Karlström905%<1%3%7%0.6
Jakub Piotrowski bench304%<1%2%6%0.6
Christian Kabasele434%<1%<1%4%0.2
Oumar Solet433%<1%2%6%0.4
Lennon Miller503%<1%6%9%0.5
Giorgi Chakvetadze bench122%<1%1%3%0.2
Enzo Ebosse761%<1%5%6%0.2
Oier Zarraga bench8<1%<1%<1%2%0.1
Matteo Palma bench10<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Nicolò Bertola bench9<1%<1%<1%<1%0.1
Maduka Okoye90<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0