Torino v Udinese
Too close to call.
TestedOut of 100: Torino 36, draw 30, Udinese 34. No result stands out.
Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:26 CEST, before kickoff.
Likely line-ups
Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoffPlayers to watch
Model estimateEach player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).
- Giovanni Simeone25%to score
- Nikola Vlasic16%to score
- Che Adams13%to score
- Rolando Mandragora10%to score
- Keinan Davis19%to score
- Jurgen Ekkelenkamp16%to score
- Idrissa Gueye14%to score
- James Abankwah7%to score
Numbers to expect
Forecast by VestaWhat each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.
What's at stake
Model estimateThe chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.
| Team and chance | Now | Torino win | Draw | Udinese win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino | ||||
| Bottom 3 | 15% | 11% | 15% | 19% |
| Udinese | ||||
| Bottom 3 | 16% | 21% | 17% | 10% |
Goals in the match
TestedExactly
Goals by team
TestedWinning margin
TestedResult combinations
TestedClean sheets
TestedThe first goal
Model estimateWhen it comes
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Torino goals down, Udinese goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 14.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
TestedHalf-time and full-time
TestedWhen the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works
Every player's chances
Model estimateEveryone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giovanni Simeone | 25% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Nikola Vlasic | 16% | 10% | 1.2 |
| Che Adams bench | 13% | 5% | 1.0 |
| Rolando Mandragora | 10% | 6% | 1.2 |
| Kian Fitz-Jim | 7% | 12% | 0.8 |
| Eray Cömert | 5% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Pietro Comuzzo | 5% | 1% | 0.4 |
| Sandro Kulenovic bench | 4% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Saúl Coco | 3% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Daniel Bragança bench | 3% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Gvidas Gineitis | 3% | 7% | 0.7 |
| Alessio Cacciamani | 3% | 8% | 0.3 |
| Cesare Casadei bench | 3% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Emirhan Ilkhan bench | 2% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Niccolò Fortini | 2% | 3% | 0.5 |
| Rafik Belghali bench | 2% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Ardian Ismajli bench | 1% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Marcus Pedersen bench | <1% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Nathan Patterson bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Diego Mascardi bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Lucas Perri | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keinan Davis | 19% | 10% | 1.2 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 16% | 9% | 1.4 |
| Idrissa Gueye bench | 14% | 3% | 1.2 |
| James Abankwah | 7% | 3% | 0.5 |
| Unai Gómez bench | 6% | 5% | 0.8 |
| Mergim Vojvoda | 6% | 10% | 0.7 |
| Nicolo Zaniolo bench | 6% | 5% | 0.7 |
| Vakoun Bayo bench | 5% | 3% | 0.5 |
| Hassane Kamara | 5% | 8% | 0.8 |
| Jesper Karlström | 5% | 3% | 0.6 |
| Jakub Piotrowski bench | 4% | 2% | 0.6 |
| Christian Kabasele | 4% | <1% | 0.2 |
| Oumar Solet | 3% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Lennon Miller | 3% | 6% | 0.5 |
| Giorgi Chakvetadze bench | 2% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Enzo Ebosse | 1% | 5% | 0.2 |
| Oier Zarraga bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Matteo Palma bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Nicolò Bertola bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Maduka Okoye | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |



