- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Israel v Republic of Ireland
29%Israel
30%Draw
41%Republic of Ireland
Republic of Ireland, just.
TestedRepublic of Ireland win about 41 times in 100. The other 59: a draw (30) or an Israel win (29).
Forecast by Vesta, published Sunday 27 September 2026, 13:36 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 0–3: Vesta gave this result 41%. The favourite came through.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.1 v 1.3
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedIsrael: 1 or more65%
Israel: 2 or more28%
Israel: 3 or more9%
Republic of Ireland: 1 or more72%
Republic of Ireland: 2 or more37%
Republic of Ireland: 3 or more14%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedIsrael by 3 or more3%
Israel by 28%
Israel by 118%
Draw30%
Republic of Ireland by 122%
Republic of Ireland by 212%
Republic of Ireland by 3 or more7%
Result combinations
TestedIsrael win or draw59%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Republic of Ireland win or draw70%
Clean sheets
TestedIsrael keep a clean sheet28%
Republic of Ireland keep a clean sheet35%
Israel win without conceding17%
Republic of Ireland win without conceding24%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateIsrael score first40%
Republic of Ireland score first49%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1528%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Israel goals down, Republic of Ireland goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 14.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half72%
Israel ahead at half-time24%
Level at half-time45%
Republic of Ireland ahead at half-time31%
Israel win the second half26%
Second half level41%
Republic of Ireland win the second half33%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateIsrael ahead at half-time, Israel win17%
Level at half-time, Israel win11%
Republic of Ireland ahead at half-time, Israel win2%
Israel ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw20%
Republic of Ireland ahead at half-time, draw5%
Israel ahead at half-time, Republic of Ireland win2%
Level at half-time, Republic of Ireland win15%
Republic of Ireland ahead at half-time, Republic of Ireland win24%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
IsraelRepublic of Ireland
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works