- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Croatia v England
23%Croatia
28%Draw
49%England
England, just.
TestedEngland win about 49 times in 100. The other 51: a draw (28) or a Croatia win (23).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:51 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals43%
Both teams score47%
Expected goals0.9 v 1.5
Most likely score1-113% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals69%
3 or more goals43%
4 or more goals22%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedCroatia: 1 or more60%
Croatia: 2 or more23%
Croatia: 3 or more6%
England: 1 or more77%
England: 2 or more43%
England: 3 or more18%
Both teams score47%
At least one team does not score53%
Winning margin
TestedCroatia by 3 or more2%
Croatia by 26%
Croatia by 115%
Draw28%
England by 124%
England by 215%
England by 3 or more10%
Result combinations
TestedCroatia win or draw51%
Either team wins (no draw)72%
England win or draw77%
Clean sheets
TestedCroatia keep a clean sheet23%
England keep a clean sheet40%
Croatia win without conceding13%
England win without conceding30%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateCroatia score first35%
England score first56%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Croatia goals down, England goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 13.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | · | 0.1 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half66%
A goal in the second half72%
Croatia ahead at half-time20%
Level at half-time44%
England ahead at half-time36%
Croatia win the second half20%
Second half level40%
England win the second half39%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves28%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateCroatia ahead at half-time, Croatia win13%
Level at half-time, Croatia win9%
England ahead at half-time, Croatia win1%
Croatia ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw18%
England ahead at half-time, draw5%
Croatia ahead at half-time, England win2%
Level at half-time, England win17%
England ahead at half-time, England win30%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
CroatiaEngland
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works