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Sat 3 Oct 2026

India v Brazil

IndiaRating 1,246
0–4Full time
BrazilRating 2,087
0%
India win
2%
Draw
98%
Brazil win

Brazil, clearly.

Brazil win about 98 times in 100. The other 2: a draw (2) or an India win (0). Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:51 CEST, before kickoff.

Tested

Match events

Minute by minute
  1. 28'0–1 Goal: EstêvãoAssist: Mateuzinho Brazil
  2. 42'0–2 Goal: PedroAssist: Estêvão Brazil
  3. 45' Substitution: Jay GuptaOff: Akash Mishra India
  4. 45' Substitution: Mohammed Sanan KOff: Ashique Kuruniyan India
  5. 45' Substitution: Prabhsukhan GillOff: Gurpreet Singh Sandhu India
  6. 45' Substitution: Gabriel MagalhãesOff: Douglas Santos Brazil
  7. 45' Substitution: Samuel LinoOff: Vinícius Júnior Brazil
  8. 45' Substitution: Bruno GuimarãesOff: Danilo Santos Brazil
  9. 45' Substitution: VandersonOff: Mateuzinho Brazil
  10. 45' Substitution: Douglas LuizOff: Gabriel Bontempo Brazil
  11. Half-time 0–2
  12. 58'0–3 Goal: Samuel LinoAssist: Pedro Brazil
  13. 59' Substitution: Edmund LalrindikaOff: Sahal Abdul Samad India
  14. 59' Substitution: Hmingthan MawiaOff: Tekcham Singh India
  15. 60' Substitution: Jair PaulaOff: Marquinhos Brazil
  16. 61' Substitution: Mauro JúniorOff: Arthur Dias Brazil
  17. 61' Substitution: EndrickOff: Pedro Brazil
  18. 61' Substitution: MartinelliOff: Andrey Santos Brazil
  19. 67' Substitution: Breno BidonOff: Estêvão Brazil
  20. 69' Substitution: Pramveer SinghOff: Bijoy Varghese India
  21. 83' Substitution: Rahim AliOff: Apuia India
  22. 83' Substitution: Macarton NicksonOff: Anirudh Thapa India
  23. 83' Substitution: Mehtab SinghOff: Anwar Ali India
  24. 83' Substitution: Farukh ChoudharyOff: Ryan Williams India
  25. 83' Substitution: Vikram Partap SinghOff: Manvir Singh India
  26. 90+5'0–4 Goal: Samuel LinoAssist: Mauro Júnior Brazil

Match stats

India v Brazil
Possession34%66%
Passes completed84%91%
Shots920
Shots on target37
Corners68
Fouls47
Offsides111
Yellow cards00
Red cards00
Saves32

Line-ups

Confirmed
India4-2-3-14-3-3Brazil
  • 145' Sandhu
  • 645' Mishra
  • 483' Ali
  • 569' Varghese
  • 259' Singh
  • 783' Thapa
  • 883' Apuia
  • 2245' Kuruniyan
  • 1859' Samad
  • 1083' Williams
  • 983' Singh
  • 23 Luccas
  • 645' Santos
  • 1561' Dias
  • 460' Marquinhos
  • 13A45' Mateuzinho
  • 545' Santos
  • 2161' Santos
  • 2545' Bontempo
  • 745' Júnior
  • 19A61' Pedro
  • 11A67' Estêvão
India bench
  • 17Edmund Lalrindika59'
  • 19Farukh Choudhary83'
  • 20Hmingthan Mawia59'
  • 21Jay Gupta45'
  • 16Macarton Nickson83'
  • 25Mehtab Singh83'
  • 12Mohammed Sanan K45'
  • 13Prabhsukhan Gill45'
  • 3Pramveer Singh69'
  • 11Rahim Ali83'
  • 14Vikram Partap Singh83'
  • 23Albino Gomes
  • 24Irfan Yadwad
  • 15Ricky John Shabong
  • 26Som Kumar
Brazil bench
  • 17Breno Bidon67'
  • 8Bruno Guimarães45'
  • 18Douglas Luiz45'
  • 9Endrick61'
  • 3Gabriel Magalhães45'
  • 24Jair Paula60'
  • 20Martinelli61'
  • 16Mauro Júnior61'A
  • 22Samuel Lino45'
  • 2Vanderson45'
  • 1Hugo Souza
  • 12Otávio Costa
  • 26Rayan
  • 14Vitor Reis
Final score 0–4: Vesta gave this result 98%. The favourite came through.
Expected goals
0.3 v 4.4
Likeliest score
0-4 14%
Both teams score
25%
3 or more goals
87%
Every probability of the match

Goals in the match

Tested
1 or more goals99%
2 or more goals96%
3 or more goals87%
4 or more goals73%
5 or more goals55%

Exact number of goals

Tested
0 goals1%
1 goal3%
2 goals9%
3 goals14%
4 goals18%
5 goals18%
6 or more goals36%

Goals by team

Tested
India: 1 or more25%
India: 2 or more3%
India: 3 or more0%
Brazil: 1 or more99%
Brazil: 2 or more95%
Brazil: 3 or more85%
Both teams score25%
At least one team does not score75%

Every score

Tested

Chance of each score in percent: India goals down, Brazil goals across. The outlined one happened.

Chance of each exact score
Home goals down, away goals across012345
00.83.27.611.813.913.0
10.21.02.23.44.03.8
2·0.10.30.50.60.5
3···0.10.10.1
4······
5······

Winning margin

Tested
India by 3 or more0%
India by 20%
India by 10%
Draw2%
Brazil by 16%
Brazil by 212%
Brazil by 3 or more78%

Result combinations

Tested
India win or draw3%
Either team wins (no draw)98%
Brazil win or draw100%

Clean sheets

Tested
India keep a clean sheet1%
Brazil keep a clean sheet73%
India win without conceding0%
Brazil win without conceding72%
No goals at all1%

The first goal

Model estimate
India score first6%
Brazil score first94%
No goals1%

When it comes

Minutes 1-1550%
Minutes 16-3025%
Minutes 31-45+13%
Minutes 46-606%
Minutes 61-753%
Minutes 76-90+1%

Halves

Model estimate
A goal in the first half89%
A goal in the second half94%
India ahead at half-time2%
Level at half-time14%
Brazil ahead at half-time85%
India win the second half2%
Second half level10%
Brazil win the second half89%
More goals in the first half32%
More goals in the second half50%
Same goals in both halves18%

Half-time and full-time

Model estimate
India ahead at half-time, India win0%
Level at half-time, India win0%
Brazil ahead at half-time, India win0%
India ahead at half-time, draw0%
Level at half-time, draw1%
Brazil ahead at half-time, draw0%
India ahead at half-time, Brazil win1%
Level at half-time, Brazil win12%
Brazil ahead at half-time, Brazil win84%

When the goals come

Model estimate

Expected goals in each 15 minutes.

1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
IndiaBrazil

Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works