- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Switzerland v Slovenia
78%Switzerland
16%Draw
6%Slovenia
Switzerland, clearly.
TestedSwitzerland win about 78 times in 100. The other 22: a draw (16) or a Slovenia win (6).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:52 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals57%
Both teams score39%
Expected goals2.4 v 0.6
Most likely score2-015% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals95%
2 or more goals80%
3 or more goals57%
4 or more goals35%
5 or more goals18%
Exactly
0 goals5%
1 goal14%
2 goals23%
3 goals22%
4 goals17%
5 goals10%
6 or more goals8%
Goals by team
TestedSwitzerland: 1 or more91%
Switzerland: 2 or more70%
Switzerland: 3 or more44%
Slovenia: 1 or more43%
Slovenia: 2 or more11%
Slovenia: 3 or more2%
Both teams score39%
At least one team does not score61%
Winning margin
TestedSwitzerland by 3 or more33%
Switzerland by 223%
Switzerland by 122%
Draw16%
Slovenia by 15%
Slovenia by 21%
Slovenia by 3 or more0%
Result combinations
TestedSwitzerland win or draw94%
Either team wins (no draw)84%
Slovenia win or draw22%
Clean sheets
TestedSwitzerland keep a clean sheet57%
Slovenia keep a clean sheet9%
Switzerland win without conceding52%
Slovenia win without conceding3%
No goals at all5%
The first goal
Model estimateSwitzerland score first77%
Slovenia score first18%
No goals5%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1535%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6010%
Minutes 61-756%
Minutes 76-90+5%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Switzerland goals down, Slovenia goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | · | · |
| 1 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 1.9 | 0.3 | · | · |
| 2 | 14.7 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · |
| 3 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | · | · |
| 4 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half73%
A goal in the second half81%
Switzerland ahead at half-time57%
Level at half-time35%
Slovenia ahead at half-time8%
Switzerland win the second half64%
Second half level28%
Slovenia win the second half9%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half44%
Same goals in both halves25%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateSwitzerland ahead at half-time, Switzerland win54%
Level at half-time, Switzerland win22%
Slovenia ahead at half-time, Switzerland win2%
Switzerland ahead at half-time, draw3%
Level at half-time, draw10%
Slovenia ahead at half-time, draw3%
Switzerland ahead at half-time, Slovenia win0%
Level at half-time, Slovenia win3%
Slovenia ahead at half-time, Slovenia win3%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
SwitzerlandSlovenia
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works