1. National teams
  2. UEFA Nations League
Sat 3 Oct 2026

Spain v Czech Republic

SpainRating 2,350
3–1Full time
Czech RepublicRating 1,733
97%
Spain win
3%
Draw
0%
Czech Republic win

Spain, clearly.

Spain win about 97 times in 100. The other 3: a draw (3) or a Czech Republic win (0). Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:43 CEST, before kickoff.

Tested

Match events

Minute by minute
  1. 6'1–0 Goal: Lamine YamalAssist: Dani Olmo Spain
  2. 35'2–0 Goal: Rodri Spain
  3. 45' Substitution: Yéremy PinoOff: Álex Baena Spain
  4. 45' Substitution: Víctor MuñozOff: Lamine Yamal Spain
  5. Half-time 2–0
  6. 57' Substitution: Ryan NaderiOff: Lukás Ambros Czech Republic
  7. 57' Substitution: Lukás CervOff: Roman Macek Czech Republic
  8. 67' Substitution: Fermín LópezOff: Dani Olmo Spain
  9. 67' Substitution: Mikel MerinoOff: Pedri Spain
  10. 69'2–1 Goal: Jiri SlámaAssist: Adam Hlozek Czech Republic
  11. 73' Substitution: Michal SadílekOff: Alex Král Czech Republic
  12. 73' Substitution: Pavel BuchaOff: Matěj Radosta Czech Republic
  13. 77' Substitution: Martín ZubimendiOff: Rodri Spain
  14. 79' Yellow card: Ladislav Krejcí Czech Republic
  15. 82' Yellow card: Michal Sadílek Czech Republic
  16. 85' Red card: Ladislav Krejcí Czech Republic
  17. 87' Substitution: Martin VitíkOff: Adam Hlozek Czech Republic
  18. 89' Yellow card: Ondrej Lingr Czech Republic
  19. 89'3–1 Goal: Mikel Merino Spain
  20. 90' Yellow card: Stepán Chaloupek Czech Republic
  21. 90+1' Yellow card: Antonín Kinsky Czech Republic
  22. 90+3' Yellow card: Fermín López Spain

Match stats

Spain v Czech Republic
Possession69%31%
Passes completed92%82%
Shots185
Shots on target102
Corners50
Fouls1113
Offsides10
Yellow cards14
Red cards01
Saves17

Line-ups

Confirmed
Spain4-3-34-2-3-1Czech Republic
  • 1 Raya
  • 5 García
  • 14 Laporte
  • 3 Le Normand
  • 4 Fresneda
  • 2067' Pedri
  • 1677' Rodri
  • 10A67' Olmo
  • 1545' Baena
  • 17 Fernández
  • 1945' Yamal
  • 23 Kinsky
  • 5 Sláma
  • 7 Krejcí
  • 6 Chaloupek
  • 22 Sacek
  • 1957' Macek
  • 2173' Král
  • 20 Lingr
  • 1357' Ambros
  • 1873' Radosta
  • 10A87' Hlozek
Spain bench
  • 9Fermín López67'
  • 18Martín Zubimendi77'
  • 6Mikel Merino67'
  • 7Víctor Muñoz45'
  • 11Yéremy Pino45'
  • 2Dean Huijsen
  • 13Josep Martínez
  • 22Marc Cucurella
  • 12Marc Pubill
  • 21Mikel Oyarzabal
  • 23Unai Simón
Czech Republic bench
  • 12Lukás Cerv57'
  • 14Martin Vitík87'
  • 8Michal Sadílek73'
  • 17Pavel Bucha73'
  • 9Ryan Naderi57'
  • 11Daniel Vasulín
  • 16Lukás Hornícek
  • 15Martin Šubert
  • 1Matej Kovár
  • 2Ondrej Kricfalusi
  • 3Ondrej Zmrzly
  • 4Robin Hranác
Final score 3–1: Vesta gave this result 97%. The favourite came through.
Expected goals
4.3 v 0.3
Likeliest score
4-0 14%
Both teams score
26%
3 or more goals
86%
Every probability of the match

Goals in the match

Tested
1 or more goals99%
2 or more goals95%
3 or more goals86%
4 or more goals71%
5 or more goals52%

Exact number of goals

Tested
0 goals1%
1 goal4%
2 goals10%
3 goals15%
4 goals18%
5 goals17%
6 or more goals33%

Goals by team

Tested
Spain: 1 or more99%
Spain: 2 or more94%
Spain: 3 or more83%
Czech Republic: 1 or more26%
Czech Republic: 2 or more4%
Czech Republic: 3 or more0%
Both teams score26%
At least one team does not score74%

Every score

Tested

Chance of each score in percent: Spain goals down, Czech Republic goals across. The outlined one happened.

Chance of each exact score
Home goals down, away goals across012345
00.90.2····
13.61.20.2···
28.32.50.4···
312.43.80.60.1··
414.04.20.60.1··
512.63.80.60.1··

Winning margin

Tested
Spain by 3 or more76%
Spain by 213%
Spain by 17%
Draw3%
Czech Republic by 10%
Czech Republic by 20%
Czech Republic by 3 or more0%

Result combinations

Tested
Spain win or draw100%
Either team wins (no draw)97%
Czech Republic win or draw3%

Clean sheets

Tested
Spain keep a clean sheet73%
Czech Republic keep a clean sheet1%
Spain win without conceding72%
Czech Republic win without conceding0%
No goals at all1%

The first goal

Model estimate
Spain score first93%
Czech Republic score first6%
No goals1%

When it comes

Minutes 1-1550%
Minutes 16-3025%
Minutes 31-45+13%
Minutes 46-606%
Minutes 61-753%
Minutes 76-90+2%

Halves

Model estimate
A goal in the first half89%
A goal in the second half93%
Spain ahead at half-time84%
Level at half-time15%
Czech Republic ahead at half-time2%
Spain win the second half88%
Second half level11%
Czech Republic win the second half2%
More goals in the first half32%
More goals in the second half50%
Same goals in both halves18%

Half-time and full-time

Model estimate
Spain ahead at half-time, Spain win83%
Level at half-time, Spain win13%
Czech Republic ahead at half-time, Spain win1%
Spain ahead at half-time, draw1%
Level at half-time, draw2%
Czech Republic ahead at half-time, draw0%
Spain ahead at half-time, Czech Republic win0%
Level at half-time, Czech Republic win0%
Czech Republic ahead at half-time, Czech Republic win0%

When the goals come

Model estimate

Expected goals in each 15 minutes.

1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
SpainCzech Republic

Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works