Spain, clearly.
TestedSpain win about 86 times in 100. The other 14: a draw (11) or a Croatia win (3).
Forecast by Vesta, published Tuesday 29 September 2026, 12:07 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 4–1: Vesta gave this result 86%. The favourite came through.
3 or more goals65%
Both teams score36%
Expected goals2.9 v 0.5
Most likely score2-014% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals96%
2 or more goals85%
3 or more goals65%
4 or more goals43%
5 or more goals25%
Exactly
0 goals4%
1 goal11%
2 goals20%
3 goals22%
4 goals18%
5 goals12%
6 or more goals12%
Goals by team
TestedSpain: 1 or more94%
Spain: 2 or more78%
Spain: 3 or more55%
Croatia: 1 or more38%
Croatia: 2 or more8%
Croatia: 3 or more1%
Both teams score36%
At least one team does not score64%
Winning margin
TestedSpain by 3 or more45%
Spain by 222%
Spain by 118%
Draw11%
Croatia by 13%
Croatia by 21%
Croatia by 3 or more0%
Result combinations
TestedSpain win or draw96%
Either team wins (no draw)89%
Croatia win or draw14%
Clean sheets
TestedSpain keep a clean sheet62%
Croatia keep a clean sheet6%
Spain win without conceding58%
Croatia win without conceding2%
No goals at all4%
The first goal
Model estimateSpain score first83%
Croatia score first14%
No goals4%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1537%
Minutes 16-3024%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6010%
Minutes 61-756%
Minutes 76-90+4%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Spain goals down, Croatia goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · | · |
| 1 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 2 | 14.4 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 3 | 13.9 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | · | · |
| 4 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half77%
A goal in the second half84%
Spain ahead at half-time65%
Level at half-time29%
Croatia ahead at half-time6%
Spain win the second half71%
Second half level23%
Croatia win the second half6%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half46%
Same goals in both halves23%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateSpain ahead at half-time, Spain win63%
Level at half-time, Spain win21%
Croatia ahead at half-time, Spain win2%
Spain ahead at half-time, draw2%
Level at half-time, draw7%
Croatia ahead at half-time, draw2%
Spain ahead at half-time, Croatia win0%
Level at half-time, Croatia win2%
Croatia ahead at half-time, Croatia win2%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
SpainCroatia
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works