- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Israel v Kosovo
24%Israel
28%Draw
48%Kosovo
Kosovo, just.
TestedKosovo win about 48 times in 100. The other 52: a draw (28) or an Israel win (24).
Forecast by Vesta, published Thursday 1 October 2026, 17:41 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 0–0: Vesta gave this result 28%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals42%
Both teams score47%
Expected goals0.9 v 1.4
Most likely score1-113% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals69%
3 or more goals42%
4 or more goals22%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedIsrael: 1 or more61%
Israel: 2 or more24%
Israel: 3 or more7%
Kosovo: 1 or more76%
Kosovo: 2 or more42%
Kosovo: 3 or more17%
Both teams score47%
At least one team does not score53%
Winning margin
TestedIsrael by 3 or more2%
Israel by 26%
Israel by 115%
Draw29%
Kosovo by 124%
Kosovo by 215%
Kosovo by 3 or more9%
Result combinations
TestedIsrael win or draw52%
Either team wins (no draw)71%
Kosovo win or draw76%
Clean sheets
TestedIsrael keep a clean sheet24%
Kosovo keep a clean sheet39%
Israel win without conceding14%
Kosovo win without conceding29%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateIsrael score first35%
Kosovo score first55%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Israel goals down, Kosovo goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 13.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half73%
Israel ahead at half-time20%
Level at half-time45%
Kosovo ahead at half-time35%
Israel win the second half22%
Second half level40%
Kosovo win the second half38%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateIsrael ahead at half-time, Israel win13%
Level at half-time, Israel win10%
Kosovo ahead at half-time, Israel win1%
Israel ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Kosovo ahead at half-time, draw5%
Israel ahead at half-time, Kosovo win2%
Level at half-time, Kosovo win16%
Kosovo ahead at half-time, Kosovo win29%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
IsraelKosovo
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works