- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Bosnia and Herzegovina v Sweden
35%Bosnia and Herzegovina
30%Draw
35%Sweden
Too close to call.
TestedOut of 100: Bosnia and Herzegovina 35, draw 30, Sweden 35. No result stands out.
Forecast by Vesta, published Friday 2 October 2026, 17:45 CEST, before kickoff.
Final score 1–1: Vesta gave this result 30%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.2 v 1.2
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals89%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals11%
1 goal22%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals5%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedBosnia and Herzegovina: 1 or more69%
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 2 or more32%
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 3 or more11%
Sweden: 1 or more69%
Sweden: 2 or more32%
Sweden: 3 or more11%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedBosnia and Herzegovina by 3 or more5%
Bosnia and Herzegovina by 210%
Bosnia and Herzegovina by 120%
Draw30%
Sweden by 120%
Sweden by 210%
Sweden by 3 or more5%
Result combinations
TestedBosnia and Herzegovina win or draw65%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Sweden win or draw65%
Clean sheets
TestedBosnia and Herzegovina keep a clean sheet31%
Sweden keep a clean sheet31%
Bosnia and Herzegovina win without conceding21%
Sweden win without conceding21%
No goals at all11%
The first goal
Model estimateBosnia and Herzegovina score first45%
Sweden score first45%
No goals11%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+7%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Bosnia and Herzegovina goals down, Sweden goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 14.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half71%
Bosnia and Herzegovina ahead at half-time27%
Level at half-time46%
Sweden ahead at half-time27%
Bosnia and Herzegovina win the second half30%
Second half level41%
Sweden win the second half29%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves28%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateBosnia and Herzegovina ahead at half-time, Bosnia and Herzegovina win20%
Level at half-time, Bosnia and Herzegovina win13%
Sweden ahead at half-time, Bosnia and Herzegovina win2%
Bosnia and Herzegovina ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw20%
Sweden ahead at half-time, draw5%
Bosnia and Herzegovina ahead at half-time, Sweden win2%
Level at half-time, Sweden win13%
Sweden ahead at half-time, Sweden win20%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
Bosnia and HerzegovinaSweden
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works