- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Belarus v San Marino
98%Belarus
2%Draw
0%San Marino
Belarus, clearly.
TestedBelarus win about 98 times in 100. The other 2: a draw (2) or a San Marino win (0).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:51 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals90%
Both teams score24%
Expected goals4.7 v 0.3
Most likely score5-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals99%
2 or more goals97%
3 or more goals90%
4 or more goals77%
5 or more goals61%
Exactly
0 goals1%
1 goal3%
2 goals7%
3 goals12%
4 goals16%
5 goals17%
6 or more goals40%
Goals by team
TestedBelarus: 1 or more99%
Belarus: 2 or more96%
Belarus: 3 or more88%
San Marino: 1 or more24%
San Marino: 2 or more3%
San Marino: 3 or more0%
Both teams score24%
At least one team does not score76%
Winning margin
TestedBelarus by 3 or more80%
Belarus by 210%
Belarus by 15%
Draw2%
San Marino by 10%
San Marino by 20%
San Marino by 3 or more0%
Result combinations
TestedBelarus win or draw100%
Either team wins (no draw)98%
San Marino win or draw2%
Clean sheets
TestedBelarus keep a clean sheet74%
San Marino keep a clean sheet1%
Belarus win without conceding73%
San Marino win without conceding0%
No goals at all1%
The first goal
Model estimateBelarus score first94%
San Marino score first5%
No goals1%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1553%
Minutes 16-3025%
Minutes 31-45+13%
Minutes 46-605%
Minutes 61-752%
Minutes 76-90+1%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Belarus goals down, San Marino goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · | · | · | · |
| 1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
| 2 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 0.2 | · | · | · |
| 3 | 10.7 | 2.9 | 0.4 | · | · | · |
| 4 | 13.3 | 3.6 | 0.5 | · | · | · |
| 5 | 13.4 | 3.6 | 0.5 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half91%
A goal in the second half94%
Belarus ahead at half-time87%
Level at half-time12%
San Marino ahead at half-time1%
Belarus win the second half91%
Second half level8%
San Marino win the second half1%
More goals in the first half33%
More goals in the second half50%
Same goals in both halves17%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateBelarus ahead at half-time, Belarus win86%
Level at half-time, Belarus win11%
San Marino ahead at half-time, Belarus win1%
Belarus ahead at half-time, draw0%
Level at half-time, draw1%
San Marino ahead at half-time, draw0%
Belarus ahead at half-time, San Marino win0%
Level at half-time, San Marino win0%
San Marino ahead at half-time, San Marino win0%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
BelarusSan Marino
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works