- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Finland v Albania
36%Finland
30%Draw
34%Albania
Match events
Minute by minute- 4'0–1 Goal: Rey ManajAssist: Kristjan Asllani Albania
- 22' Red card: Etrit Berisha Albania
- 25' Substitution: Alen SherriOff: Arbër Hoxha Albania
- 26'1–1 Goal: Leo Walta Finland
Match stats
Finland v AlbaniaPossession49%51%
Passes completed88%88%
Shots24
Shots on target11
Corners22
Fouls14
Offsides01
Yellow cards00
Red cards01
Saves00
Line-ups
Confirmed
Finland4-3-33-4-3Albania
- 1 Hradecky
- 13 Lähteenmäki
- 5 Miettinen
- 4 Miettinen
- 3 Stahl
- 10 Walta
- 11 Markhiev
- 14 Kairinen
- 22 Håkans
- 20 Pohjanpalo
- 9 Svanbäck
- 1 Berisha
- 3 Mitaj
- 18 Ismajli
- 6 Djimsiti
- 22 Pilios
- 8A Asllani
- 20 Ramadani
- 4 Hysaj
- 2125' Hoxha
- 7 Manaj
- 10 Muçi
Finland bench
- 16Anssi Suhonen
- 19Benjamin Kallman
- 6Glen Kamara
- 15Leo Väisänen
- 23Lucas Bergstrom
- 2Matti Peltola
- 21Oiva Jukkola
- 8Onni Valakari
- 17Ryan Mahuta
- 7Santeri Vaananen
- 18Topi Keskinen
- 12Viljami Sinisalo
Albania bench
- 12Alen Sherri25'
- 9Anis Mehmeti
- 14Cristian Shpendi
- 2Feta Fetai
- 16Juljan Shehu
- 5Klisman Cake
- 15Marash Kumbulla
- 23Mario Dajsinani
- 19Mirlind Daku
- 11Myrto Uzuni
- 13Naser Aliji
- 17Taulant Seferi
Too close to call.
TestedOut of 100: Finland 36, draw 30, Albania 34. No result stands out.
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:51 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.2 v 1.1
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals89%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals11%
1 goal22%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals5%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedFinland: 1 or more69%
Finland: 2 or more33%
Finland: 3 or more12%
Albania: 1 or more68%
Albania: 2 or more32%
Albania: 3 or more11%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedFinland by 3 or more5%
Finland by 210%
Finland by 121%
Draw30%
Albania by 120%
Albania by 210%
Albania by 3 or more5%
Result combinations
TestedFinland win or draw66%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Albania win or draw64%
Clean sheets
TestedFinland keep a clean sheet32%
Albania keep a clean sheet31%
Finland win without conceding21%
Albania win without conceding20%
No goals at all11%
The first goal
Model estimateFinland score first45%
Albania score first44%
No goals11%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Finland goals down, Albania goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 14.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half72%
Finland ahead at half-time27%
Level at half-time46%
Albania ahead at half-time27%
Finland win the second half30%
Second half level40%
Albania win the second half29%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateFinland ahead at half-time, Finland win21%
Level at half-time, Finland win13%
Albania ahead at half-time, Finland win2%
Finland ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw20%
Albania ahead at half-time, draw5%
Finland ahead at half-time, Albania win2%
Level at half-time, Albania win13%
Albania ahead at half-time, Albania win19%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
FinlandAlbania
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works