- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Estonia v Luxembourg
45%Estonia
29%Draw
26%Luxembourg
Estonia, just.
TestedEstonia win about 45 times in 100. The other 55: a draw (29) or a Luxembourg win (26).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:51 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals42%
Both teams score47%
Expected goals1.4 v 1.0
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals69%
3 or more goals42%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedEstonia: 1 or more75%
Estonia: 2 or more40%
Estonia: 3 or more16%
Luxembourg: 1 or more62%
Luxembourg: 2 or more26%
Luxembourg: 3 or more8%
Both teams score47%
At least one team does not score53%
Winning margin
TestedEstonia by 3 or more8%
Estonia by 214%
Estonia by 123%
Draw29%
Luxembourg by 116%
Luxembourg by 27%
Luxembourg by 3 or more3%
Result combinations
TestedEstonia win or draw74%
Either team wins (no draw)71%
Luxembourg win or draw55%
Clean sheets
TestedEstonia keep a clean sheet38%
Luxembourg keep a clean sheet25%
Estonia win without conceding27%
Luxembourg win without conceding15%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateEstonia score first53%
Luxembourg score first37%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1528%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Estonia goals down, Luxembourg goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half73%
Estonia ahead at half-time34%
Level at half-time45%
Luxembourg ahead at half-time21%
Estonia win the second half37%
Second half level40%
Luxembourg win the second half24%
More goals in the first half29%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateEstonia ahead at half-time, Estonia win27%
Level at half-time, Estonia win16%
Luxembourg ahead at half-time, Estonia win2%
Estonia ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Luxembourg ahead at half-time, draw5%
Estonia ahead at half-time, Luxembourg win1%
Level at half-time, Luxembourg win10%
Luxembourg ahead at half-time, Luxembourg win14%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
EstoniaLuxembourg
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works