- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Iceland v Bulgaria
64%Iceland
23%Draw
13%Bulgaria
Iceland ahead.
TestedIceland win about 64 times in 100. The other 36: a draw (23) or a Bulgaria win (13).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:52 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals48%
Both teams score44%
Expected goals1.9 v 0.7
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals92%
2 or more goals73%
3 or more goals48%
4 or more goals26%
5 or more goals12%
Exactly
0 goals8%
1 goal18%
2 goals26%
3 goals21%
4 goals14%
5 goals7%
6 or more goals5%
Goals by team
TestedIceland: 1 or more84%
Iceland: 2 or more55%
Iceland: 3 or more29%
Bulgaria: 1 or more52%
Bulgaria: 2 or more16%
Bulgaria: 3 or more4%
Both teams score44%
At least one team does not score56%
Winning margin
TestedIceland by 3 or more19%
Iceland by 220%
Iceland by 125%
Draw23%
Bulgaria by 110%
Bulgaria by 23%
Bulgaria by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedIceland win or draw87%
Either team wins (no draw)77%
Bulgaria win or draw36%
Clean sheets
TestedIceland keep a clean sheet48%
Bulgaria keep a clean sheet16%
Iceland win without conceding40%
Bulgaria win without conceding8%
No goals at all8%
The first goal
Model estimateIceland score first66%
Bulgaria score first26%
No goals8%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1531%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Iceland goals down, Bulgaria goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · |
| 1 | 13.5 | 10.9 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | · |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | · |
| 3 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half69%
A goal in the second half76%
Iceland ahead at half-time46%
Level at half-time41%
Bulgaria ahead at half-time14%
Iceland win the second half51%
Second half level35%
Bulgaria win the second half14%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves27%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateIceland ahead at half-time, Iceland win41%
Level at half-time, Iceland win20%
Bulgaria ahead at half-time, Iceland win3%
Iceland ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw15%
Bulgaria ahead at half-time, draw4%
Iceland ahead at half-time, Bulgaria win1%
Level at half-time, Bulgaria win6%
Bulgaria ahead at half-time, Bulgaria win7%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
IcelandBulgaria
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works