- National teams
- CONCACAF Nations League
Martinique v Honduras
19%Martinique
27%Draw
54%Honduras
Honduras ahead.
TestedHonduras win about 54 times in 100. The other 46: a draw (27) or a Martinique win (19).
Forecast by Vesta, published Friday 2 October 2026, 17:51 CEST, before kickoff.
Final score 2–1: Vesta gave this result 19%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals44%
Both teams score46%
Expected goals0.9 v 1.6
Most likely score0-113% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals91%
2 or more goals70%
3 or more goals44%
4 or more goals23%
5 or more goals10%
Exactly
0 goals9%
1 goal20%
2 goals27%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedMartinique: 1 or more57%
Martinique: 2 or more21%
Martinique: 3 or more5%
Honduras: 1 or more79%
Honduras: 2 or more47%
Honduras: 3 or more21%
Both teams score46%
At least one team does not score54%
Winning margin
TestedMartinique by 3 or more2%
Martinique by 25%
Martinique by 113%
Draw27%
Honduras by 125%
Honduras by 217%
Honduras by 3 or more12%
Result combinations
TestedMartinique win or draw46%
Either team wins (no draw)73%
Honduras win or draw81%
Clean sheets
TestedMartinique keep a clean sheet21%
Honduras keep a clean sheet43%
Martinique win without conceding11%
Honduras win without conceding33%
No goals at all9%
The first goal
Model estimateMartinique score first32%
Honduras score first59%
No goals9%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1530%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+17%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Martinique goals down, Honduras goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 13.3 | 10.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 12.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | · | 0.1 | · | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half66%
A goal in the second half74%
Martinique ahead at half-time17%
Level at half-time43%
Honduras ahead at half-time40%
Martinique win the second half19%
Second half level38%
Honduras win the second half43%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateMartinique ahead at half-time, Martinique win10%
Level at half-time, Martinique win8%
Honduras ahead at half-time, Martinique win1%
Martinique ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw17%
Honduras ahead at half-time, draw5%
Martinique ahead at half-time, Honduras win2%
Level at half-time, Honduras win18%
Honduras ahead at half-time, Honduras win33%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
MartiniqueHonduras
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works