- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
North Macedonia v Scotland
28%North Macedonia
29%Draw
43%Scotland
Scotland, just.
TestedScotland win about 43 times in 100. The other 57: a draw (29) or a North Macedonia win (28).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:52 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.0 v 1.3
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedNorth Macedonia: 1 or more64%
North Macedonia: 2 or more27%
North Macedonia: 3 or more8%
Scotland: 1 or more74%
Scotland: 2 or more38%
Scotland: 3 or more15%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedNorth Macedonia by 3 or more3%
North Macedonia by 27%
North Macedonia by 117%
Draw29%
Scotland by 123%
Scotland by 213%
Scotland by 3 or more7%
Result combinations
TestedNorth Macedonia win or draw57%
Either team wins (no draw)71%
Scotland win or draw72%
Clean sheets
TestedNorth Macedonia keep a clean sheet26%
Scotland keep a clean sheet36%
North Macedonia win without conceding16%
Scotland win without conceding26%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateNorth Macedonia score first39%
Scotland score first51%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1528%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+7%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: North Macedonia goals down, Scotland goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 13.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half72%
North Macedonia ahead at half-time23%
Level at half-time45%
Scotland ahead at half-time32%
North Macedonia win the second half24%
Second half level41%
Scotland win the second half35%
More goals in the first half29%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateNorth Macedonia ahead at half-time, North Macedonia win15%
Level at half-time, North Macedonia win11%
Scotland ahead at half-time, North Macedonia win1%
North Macedonia ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Scotland ahead at half-time, draw5%
North Macedonia ahead at half-time, Scotland win2%
Level at half-time, Scotland win15%
Scotland ahead at half-time, Scotland win25%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
North MacedoniaScotland
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works