Too close to call.
TestedOut of 100: Tunisia 35, draw 30, Mali 35. No result stands out.
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:52 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.2 v 1.2
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals89%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals11%
1 goal22%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals5%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedTunisia: 1 or more69%
Tunisia: 2 or more32%
Tunisia: 3 or more11%
Mali: 1 or more69%
Mali: 2 or more32%
Mali: 3 or more11%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedTunisia by 3 or more5%
Tunisia by 210%
Tunisia by 120%
Draw30%
Mali by 120%
Mali by 210%
Mali by 3 or more5%
Result combinations
TestedTunisia win or draw65%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Mali win or draw65%
Clean sheets
TestedTunisia keep a clean sheet31%
Mali keep a clean sheet31%
Tunisia win without conceding21%
Mali win without conceding21%
No goals at all11%
The first goal
Model estimateTunisia score first45%
Mali score first45%
No goals11%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1528%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+7%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Tunisia goals down, Mali goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 14.1 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half63%
A goal in the second half73%
Tunisia ahead at half-time26%
Level at half-time47%
Mali ahead at half-time27%
Tunisia win the second half30%
Second half level40%
Mali win the second half30%
More goals in the first half29%
More goals in the second half43%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateTunisia ahead at half-time, Tunisia win19%
Level at half-time, Tunisia win14%
Mali ahead at half-time, Tunisia win2%
Tunisia ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw20%
Mali ahead at half-time, draw5%
Tunisia ahead at half-time, Mali win2%
Level at half-time, Mali win14%
Mali ahead at half-time, Mali win20%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
TunisiaMali
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works