- National teams
- CONCACAF Nations League
Bahamas v United States Virgin Islands
32%Bahamas
30%Draw
38%United States Virgin Islands
United States Virgin Islands, just.
TestedUnited States Virgin Islands win about 38 times in 100. The other 62: a draw (30) or a Bahamas win (32).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:44 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.1 v 1.2
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals5%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedBahamas: 1 or more67%
Bahamas: 2 or more30%
Bahamas: 3 or more10%
United States Virgin Islands: 1 or more70%
United States Virgin Islands: 2 or more34%
United States Virgin Islands: 3 or more12%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedBahamas by 3 or more4%
Bahamas by 29%
Bahamas by 119%
Draw30%
United States Virgin Islands by 121%
United States Virgin Islands by 211%
United States Virgin Islands by 3 or more5%
Result combinations
TestedBahamas win or draw62%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
United States Virgin Islands win or draw68%
Clean sheets
TestedBahamas keep a clean sheet30%
United States Virgin Islands keep a clean sheet33%
Bahamas win without conceding19%
United States Virgin Islands win without conceding22%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateBahamas score first43%
United States Virgin Islands score first47%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1528%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Bahamas goals down, United States Virgin Islands goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 14.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half66%
A goal in the second half71%
Bahamas ahead at half-time26%
Level at half-time45%
United States Virgin Islands ahead at half-time29%
Bahamas win the second half27%
Second half level41%
United States Virgin Islands win the second half31%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half40%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateBahamas ahead at half-time, Bahamas win19%
Level at half-time, Bahamas win12%
United States Virgin Islands ahead at half-time, Bahamas win2%
Bahamas ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw20%
United States Virgin Islands ahead at half-time, draw5%
Bahamas ahead at half-time, United States Virgin Islands win2%
Level at half-time, United States Virgin Islands win14%
United States Virgin Islands ahead at half-time, United States Virgin Islands win22%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
BahamasUnited States Virgin Islands
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works