- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Malta v Andorra
71%Malta
20%Draw
9%Andorra
Malta, clearly.
TestedMalta win about 71 times in 100. The other 29: a draw (20) or an Andorra win (9).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:53 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals52%
Both teams score42%
Expected goals2.1 v 0.6
Most likely score2-014% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals93%
2 or more goals77%
3 or more goals52%
4 or more goals30%
5 or more goals15%
Exactly
0 goals7%
1 goal17%
2 goals24%
3 goals22%
4 goals15%
5 goals8%
6 or more goals6%
Goals by team
TestedMalta: 1 or more88%
Malta: 2 or more63%
Malta: 3 or more36%
Andorra: 1 or more47%
Andorra: 2 or more13%
Andorra: 3 or more3%
Both teams score42%
At least one team does not score58%
Winning margin
TestedMalta by 3 or more25%
Malta by 222%
Malta by 124%
Draw19%
Andorra by 17%
Andorra by 22%
Andorra by 3 or more0%
Result combinations
TestedMalta win or draw91%
Either team wins (no draw)81%
Andorra win or draw29%
Clean sheets
TestedMalta keep a clean sheet53%
Andorra keep a clean sheet12%
Malta win without conceding46%
Andorra win without conceding5%
No goals at all7%
The first goal
Model estimateMalta score first72%
Andorra score first21%
No goals7%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1533%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+5%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Malta goals down, Andorra goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | · | · |
| 1 | 13.0 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 3 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half71%
A goal in the second half78%
Malta ahead at half-time52%
Level at half-time37%
Andorra ahead at half-time11%
Malta win the second half56%
Second half level32%
Andorra win the second half11%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half43%
Same goals in both halves26%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateMalta ahead at half-time, Malta win48%
Level at half-time, Malta win20%
Andorra ahead at half-time, Malta win3%
Malta ahead at half-time, draw3%
Level at half-time, draw13%
Andorra ahead at half-time, draw3%
Malta ahead at half-time, Andorra win1%
Level at half-time, Andorra win4%
Andorra ahead at half-time, Andorra win5%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
MaltaAndorra
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works