- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Bosnia and Herzegovina v Poland
42%Bosnia and Herzegovina
30%Draw
28%Poland
Bosnia and Herzegovina, just.
TestedBosnia and Herzegovina win about 42 times in 100. The other 58: a draw (30) or a Poland win (28).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 12:55 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.3 v 1.0
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedBosnia and Herzegovina: 1 or more73%
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 2 or more37%
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 3 or more14%
Poland: 1 or more64%
Poland: 2 or more28%
Poland: 3 or more9%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedBosnia and Herzegovina by 3 or more7%
Bosnia and Herzegovina by 212%
Bosnia and Herzegovina by 122%
Draw30%
Poland by 118%
Poland by 28%
Poland by 3 or more3%
Result combinations
TestedBosnia and Herzegovina win or draw71%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Poland win or draw58%
Clean sheets
TestedBosnia and Herzegovina keep a clean sheet36%
Poland keep a clean sheet27%
Bosnia and Herzegovina win without conceding25%
Poland win without conceding17%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateBosnia and Herzegovina score first50%
Poland score first40%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Bosnia and Herzegovina goals down, Poland goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half66%
A goal in the second half72%
Bosnia and Herzegovina ahead at half-time31%
Level at half-time45%
Poland ahead at half-time24%
Bosnia and Herzegovina win the second half35%
Second half level40%
Poland win the second half25%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateBosnia and Herzegovina ahead at half-time, Bosnia and Herzegovina win25%
Level at half-time, Bosnia and Herzegovina win15%
Poland ahead at half-time, Bosnia and Herzegovina win2%
Bosnia and Herzegovina ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Poland ahead at half-time, draw5%
Bosnia and Herzegovina ahead at half-time, Poland win2%
Level at half-time, Poland win11%
Poland ahead at half-time, Poland win16%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
Bosnia and HerzegovinaPoland
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works