- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Estonia v Iceland
25%Estonia
29%Draw
46%Iceland
Iceland, just.
TestedIceland win about 46 times in 100. The other 54: a draw (29) or an Estonia win (25).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:45 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals42%
Both teams score47%
Expected goals1.0 v 1.4
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals69%
3 or more goals42%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedEstonia: 1 or more62%
Estonia: 2 or more25%
Estonia: 3 or more7%
Iceland: 1 or more75%
Iceland: 2 or more41%
Iceland: 3 or more16%
Both teams score47%
At least one team does not score53%
Winning margin
TestedEstonia by 3 or more2%
Estonia by 27%
Estonia by 116%
Draw29%
Iceland by 123%
Iceland by 214%
Iceland by 3 or more8%
Result combinations
TestedEstonia win or draw54%
Either team wins (no draw)71%
Iceland win or draw75%
Clean sheets
TestedEstonia keep a clean sheet25%
Iceland keep a clean sheet38%
Estonia win without conceding15%
Iceland win without conceding28%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateEstonia score first37%
Iceland score first53%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Estonia goals down, Iceland goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 13.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half66%
A goal in the second half72%
Estonia ahead at half-time21%
Level at half-time44%
Iceland ahead at half-time34%
Estonia win the second half23%
Second half level41%
Iceland win the second half37%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateEstonia ahead at half-time, Estonia win14%
Level at half-time, Estonia win10%
Iceland ahead at half-time, Estonia win1%
Estonia ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Iceland ahead at half-time, draw5%
Estonia ahead at half-time, Iceland win2%
Level at half-time, Iceland win16%
Iceland ahead at half-time, Iceland win28%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
EstoniaIceland
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works