1. National teams
  2. Friendly
Sat 3 Oct 2026

Canada v Peru

CanadaRating 1,849
2–0Full time
PeruRating 1,776
55%
Canada win
26%
Draw
19%
Peru win

Canada ahead.

Canada win about 55 times in 100. The other 45: a draw (26) or a Peru win (19). Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:43 CEST, before kickoff.

Tested

Match events

Minute by minute
  1. 19'1–0 Goal: Jacob ShaffelburgAssist: Daniel Jebbison Canada
  2. 35'2–0 Goal: Jacob Shaffelburg Canada
  3. 45' Substitution: Gianluca LapadulaOff: Alex Valera Peru
  4. 45' Substitution: André CarrilloOff: Wilder Cartagena Peru
  5. 45' Substitution: Jhonny VidalesOff: Oslimg Mora Peru
  6. 45' Substitution: Piero MagallanesOff: Bassco Soyer Peru
  7. 45' Substitution: Renzo GarcésOff: Alfonso Barco Peru
  8. Half-time 2–0
  9. 62' Substitution: Tani OluwaseyiOff: Jonathan David Canada
  10. 63' Substitution: Jovan IvanisevicOff: Ralph Priso-Mbongue Canada
  11. 63' Substitution: Mathieu ChoinièreOff: Nathan Saliba Canada
  12. 63' Substitution: Jacen Russell-RoweOff: Daniel Jebbison Canada
  13. 63' Substitution: Richie LaryeaOff: Niko Sigur Canada
  14. 63' Substitution: Tajon BuchananOff: Jacob Shaffelburg Canada
  15. 63' Substitution: Promise DavidOff: Liam Millar Canada
  16. 65' Substitution: Justin SmithOff: Richard Chukwu Canada
  17. 65' Substitution: Jamie Knight-LebelOff: Luc de Fougerolles Canada
  18. 66' Substitution: Jesús PretellOff: Yoshimar Yotún Peru
  19. 66' Substitution: Samuel PietteOff: Stephen Eustáquio Canada
  20. 66' Substitution: Antonio HuamánOff: Oliver Sonne Peru
  21. 73' Substitution: Jairo ConchaOff: Jairo Vélez Peru
  22. 73' Substitution: César IngaOff: Marcos López Peru
  23. 82' Yellow card: Renzo Garcés Peru
  24. 90' Yellow card: Gianluca Lapadula Peru
  25. 90' Yellow card: Richie Laryea Canada
  26. 90+1' Substitution: Luca PetrassoOff: Richie Laryea Canada

Match stats

Canada v Peru
Possession61%39%
Passes completed87%81%
Shots174
Shots on target30
Corners75
Fouls2713
Offsides13
Yellow cards12
Red cards00
Saves01

Line-ups

Confirmed
Canada4-4-24-4-1-1Peru
  • 18 Goodman
  • 2765' Chukwu
  • 363' Priso-Mbongue
  • 465' de Fougerolles
  • 2363' Sigur
  • 1463' Shaffelburg
  • 2563' Saliba
  • 766' Eustáquio
  • 1163' Millar
  • 1062' David
  • 26A63' Jebbison
  • 21 Romero
  • 473' López
  • 345' Barco
  • 5 Araujo
  • 2266' Sonne
  • 1966' Yotún
  • 1645' Cartagena
  • 245' Mora
  • 2445' Soyer
  • 1173' Vélez
  • 2045' Valera
Canada bench
  • 21Jacen Russell-Rowe63'
  • 5Jamie Knight-Lebel65'
  • 2Jovan Ivanisevic63'
  • 28Justin Smith65'
  • 20Luca Petrasso90+1'
  • 15Mathieu Choinière63'
  • 24Promise David63'
  • 22Richie Laryea63'
  • 6Samuel Piette66'
  • 17Tajon Buchanan63'
  • 12Tani Oluwaseyi62'
  • 9Cyle Larin
  • 1Dayne St. Clair
  • 16James Pantemis
Peru bench
  • 18André Carrillo45'
  • 13Antonio Huamán66'
  • 23César Inga73'
  • 9Gianluca Lapadula45'
  • 17Jairo Concha73'
  • 6Jesús Pretell66'
  • 27Jhonny Vidales45'
  • 26Piero Magallanes45'
  • 15Renzo Garcés45'
  • 7Adrián Ugarriza
  • 8Erick Noriega
  • 12Matías Cordova
  • 25Matías Zegarra
  • 1Pedro Gallese
  • 14Rodrigo Vilca
Final score 2–0: Vesta gave this result 55%. The favourite came through.
Expected goals
1.6 v 0.8
Likeliest score
1-0 13%
Both teams score
46%
3 or more goals
44%
Every probability of the match

Goals in the match

Tested
1 or more goals91%
2 or more goals71%
3 or more goals44%
4 or more goals23%
5 or more goals10%

Exact number of goals

Tested
0 goals9%
1 goal20%
2 goals27%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals4%

Goals by team

Tested
Canada: 1 or more80%
Canada: 2 or more48%
Canada: 3 or more22%
Peru: 1 or more57%
Peru: 2 or more20%
Peru: 3 or more5%
Both teams score46%
At least one team does not score54%

Every score

Tested

Chance of each score in percent: Canada goals down, Peru goals across. The outlined one happened.

Chance of each exact score
Home goals down, away goals across012345
09.36.73.00.80.2·
113.312.54.81.30.3·
211.19.34.11.10.2·
36.05.02.10.60.1·
42.42.00.90.20.1·
50.80.70.30.1··

Winning margin

Tested
Canada by 3 or more13%
Canada by 217%
Canada by 125%
Draw27%
Peru by 113%
Peru by 25%
Peru by 3 or more1%

Result combinations

Tested
Canada win or draw81%
Either team wins (no draw)73%
Peru win or draw45%

Clean sheets

Tested
Canada keep a clean sheet43%
Peru keep a clean sheet20%
Canada win without conceding34%
Peru win without conceding11%
No goals at all9%

The first goal

Model estimate
Canada score first60%
Peru score first31%
No goals9%

When it comes

Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%

Halves

Model estimate
A goal in the first half66%
A goal in the second half74%
Canada ahead at half-time39%
Level at half-time43%
Peru ahead at half-time17%
Canada win the second half44%
Second half level38%
Peru win the second half18%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves28%

Half-time and full-time

Model estimate
Canada ahead at half-time, Canada win34%
Level at half-time, Canada win18%
Peru ahead at half-time, Canada win2%
Canada ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw17%
Peru ahead at half-time, draw5%
Canada ahead at half-time, Peru win1%
Level at half-time, Peru win7%
Peru ahead at half-time, Peru win10%

When the goals come

Model estimate

Expected goals in each 15 minutes.

1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
CanadaPeru

Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works