- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Moldova v Slovakia
13%Moldova
22%Draw
65%Slovakia
Slovakia, clearly.
TestedSlovakia win about 65 times in 100. The other 35: a draw (22) or a Moldova win (13).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:45 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals49%
Both teams score44%
Expected goals0.7 v 1.9
Most likely score0-113% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals92%
2 or more goals74%
3 or more goals49%
4 or more goals27%
5 or more goals13%
Exactly
0 goals8%
1 goal18%
2 goals25%
3 goals22%
4 goals14%
5 goals7%
6 or more goals5%
Goals by team
TestedMoldova: 1 or more51%
Moldova: 2 or more16%
Moldova: 3 or more3%
Slovakia: 1 or more85%
Slovakia: 2 or more57%
Slovakia: 3 or more30%
Both teams score44%
At least one team does not score56%
Winning margin
TestedMoldova by 3 or more1%
Moldova by 23%
Moldova by 19%
Draw22%
Slovakia by 125%
Slovakia by 220%
Slovakia by 3 or more20%
Result combinations
TestedMoldova win or draw35%
Either team wins (no draw)78%
Slovakia win or draw88%
Clean sheets
TestedMoldova keep a clean sheet15%
Slovakia keep a clean sheet49%
Moldova win without conceding7%
Slovakia win without conceding41%
No goals at all8%
The first goal
Model estimateMoldova score first25%
Slovakia score first67%
No goals8%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1531%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Moldova goals down, Slovakia goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 13.4 | 13.2 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half69%
A goal in the second half77%
Moldova ahead at half-time13%
Level at half-time40%
Slovakia ahead at half-time47%
Moldova win the second half14%
Second half level35%
Slovakia win the second half51%
More goals in the first half29%
More goals in the second half44%
Same goals in both halves27%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateMoldova ahead at half-time, Moldova win7%
Level at half-time, Moldova win5%
Slovakia ahead at half-time, Moldova win1%
Moldova ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw15%
Slovakia ahead at half-time, draw4%
Moldova ahead at half-time, Slovakia win3%
Level at half-time, Slovakia win20%
Slovakia ahead at half-time, Slovakia win42%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
MoldovaSlovakia
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works