Levante v Sevilla
Levante ahead.
TestedLevante win about 51 times in 100. The other 49: a draw (25) or a Sevilla win (24).
Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:26 CEST, before kickoff.
Likely line-ups
Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoffPlayers to watch
Model estimateEach player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).
- Roger Brugué32%to score
- Iván Romero28%to score
- Adrián De la Fuente13%to score
- Jon Ander Olasagasti12%to score
Numbers to expect
Forecast by VestaWhat each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.
What's at stake
Model estimateThe chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.
| Team and chance | Now | Levante win | Draw | Sevilla win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante | ||||
| Bottom 3 | 11% | 8% | 12% | 16% |
| Sevilla | ||||
| Top 4 | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
| Bottom 3 | 4% | 5% | 4% | 1% |
Goals in the match
TestedExactly
Goals by team
TestedWinning margin
TestedResult combinations
TestedClean sheets
TestedThe first goal
Model estimateWhen it comes
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Levante goals down, Sevilla goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.9 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
TestedHalf-time and full-time
TestedWhen the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works
Every player's chances
Model estimateEveryone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Brugué | 32% | 8% | 2.6 |
| Iván Romero | 28% | 7% | 2.1 |
| Adrián De la Fuente | 13% | 5% | 1.3 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti | 12% | 22% | 1.5 |
| Enzo Bardeli | 10% | 12% | 0.9 |
| Daniel Requena bench | 9% | 3% | 0.6 |
| Thiago Fernández | 8% | 15% | 1.2 |
| Petar Ratkov bench | 5% | 1% | 0.4 |
| Víctor García bench | 5% | 4% | 0.5 |
| Oriol Rey | 4% | 4% | 0.7 |
| Manuel Sánchez | 4% | 6% | 0.5 |
| Aissa Mandi | 4% | 3% | 0.5 |
| Nacho Pérez bench | 3% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Yanis Musuayi bench | 2% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Jeremy Toljan | 2% | 7% | 0.2 |
| Ifeanyi Ndukwe bench | 1% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Hugo Sotelo bench | 1% | 3% | 0.1 |
| Mat Ryan | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Stassin bench | 14% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Robbie Ure | 13% | 6% | 1.0 |
| Miguel Sierra | 11% | 6% | 1.4 |
| Youssouf Fofana | 8% | 6% | 0.9 |
| Felix Correia | 8% | 9% | 0.6 |
| Isaac Romero bench | 7% | 2% | 0.5 |
| Chidera Ejuke bench | 7% | 3% | 0.6 |
| Jon Guridi | 5% | 2% | 0.5 |
| Giorgi Kochorashvili bench | 4% | 6% | 0.5 |
| Andrés Castrín | 4% | 2% | 0.5 |
| Lucien Agoume | 4% | 8% | 0.6 |
| Juan Iglesias | 4% | 4% | 0.6 |
| Kike Salas | 4% | 1% | 0.5 |
| Peque bench | 2% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Gabriel Suazo | 1% | 7% | 0.2 |
| Julio Díaz bench | 1% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Arouna Sangante bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| José Ángel Carmona bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Odisseas Vlachodimos | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |



