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Levante v Sevilla

51%Levante
25%Draw
24%Sevilla

Levante ahead.

Tested

Levante win about 51 times in 100. The other 49: a draw (25) or a Sevilla win (24).

Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:26 CEST, before kickoff.

3 or more goals51%
Both teams score54%
Expected goals1.7 v 1.1
Most likely score1-112% chance

Likely line-ups

Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoff
Levante4-5-14-4-2Sevilla

Players to watch

Model estimate

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Numbers to expect

Forecast by Vesta

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.

Shots13.111.0
Shots on target4.83.6
Corners5.14.0
Fouls11.713.7
Yellow cards1.82.5

What's at stake

Model estimate

The chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.

What Levante v Sevilla changes for both teams
Team and chanceNowLevante winDrawSevilla win
Levante
Bottom 311%8%12%16%
Sevilla
Top 42%2%2%4%
Bottom 34%5%4%1%

Goals in the match

Tested
1 or more goals94%
2 or more goals75%
3 or more goals51%
4 or more goals30%
5 or more goals14%

Exactly

0 goals6%
1 goal19%
2 goals24%
3 goals21%
4 goals16%
5 goals8%
6 or more goals6%

Goals by team

Tested
Levante: 1 or more81%
Levante: 2 or more50%
Levante: 3 or more23%
Sevilla: 1 or more66%
Sevilla: 2 or more29%
Sevilla: 3 or more9%
Both teams score54%
At least one team does not score46%

Winning margin

Tested
Levante by 3 or more12%
Levante by 215%
Levante by 124%
Draw25%
Sevilla by 115%
Sevilla by 26%
Sevilla by 3 or more2%

Result combinations

Tested
Levante win or draw76%
Either team wins (no draw)75%
Sevilla win or draw49%

Clean sheets

Tested
Levante keep a clean sheet34%
Sevilla keep a clean sheet19%
Levante win without conceding28%
Sevilla win without conceding12%
No goals at all6%

The first goal

Model estimate
Levante score first57%
Sevilla score first37%
No goals6%

When it comes

Minutes 1-1532%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+5%

Every score

Tested

Chance of each score in percent: Levante goals down, Sevilla goals across.

Chance of each exact score
Home goals down, away goals across012345
06.17.43.41.20.30.1
111.211.95.82.10.60.1
28.79.35.91.80.50.1
34.95.32.81.20.30.1
42.12.21.20.40.1·
50.70.80.40.1··

Halves

Tested
A goal in the first half70%
A goal in the second half79%
Levante ahead at half-time38%
Level at half-time41%
Sevilla ahead at half-time22%
Levante win the second half42%
Second half level36%
Sevilla win the second half22%
More goals in the first half29%
More goals in the second half46%
Same goals in both halves25%

Half-time and full-time

Tested
Levante ahead at half-time, Levante win31%
Level at half-time, Levante win17%
Sevilla ahead at half-time, Levante win3%
Levante ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw15%
Sevilla ahead at half-time, draw5%
Levante ahead at half-time, Sevilla win2%
Level at half-time, Sevilla win9%
Sevilla ahead at half-time, Sevilla win14%

When the goals come

Model estimate

Expected goals in each 15 minutes.

1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
LevanteSevilla

Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works

Every player's chances

Model estimate

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

Levante
Levante: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Roger Brugué9032%6%8%38%2.6
Iván Romero6428%4%7%33%2.1
Adrián De la Fuente8713%<1%5%17%1.3
Jon Ander Olasagasti8512%<1%22%31%1.5
Enzo Bardeli6810%<1%12%21%0.9
Daniel Requena bench219%<1%3%12%0.6
Thiago Fernández608%<1%15%21%1.2
Petar Ratkov bench145%<1%1%7%0.4
Víctor García bench285%<1%4%10%0.5
Oriol Rey764%<1%4%9%0.7
Manuel Sánchez874%<1%6%9%0.5
Aissa Mandi854%<1%3%7%0.5
Nacho Pérez bench453%<1%3%6%0.2
Yanis Musuayi bench102%<1%1%3%0.2
Jeremy Toljan482%<1%7%8%0.2
Ifeanyi Ndukwe bench81%<1%1%3%0.1
Hugo Sotelo bench191%<1%3%4%0.1
Mat Ryan90<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Sevilla
Sevilla: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Lucas Stassin bench4014%1%4%17%1.0
Robbie Ure5113%<1%6%18%1.0
Miguel Sierra8011%<1%6%16%1.4
Youssouf Fofana578%<1%6%14%0.9
Felix Correia478%<1%9%16%0.6
Isaac Romero bench237%<1%2%8%0.5
Chidera Ejuke bench287%<1%3%9%0.6
Jon Guridi455%<1%2%7%0.5
Giorgi Kochorashvili bench364%<1%6%9%0.5
Andrés Castrín784%<1%2%6%0.5
Lucien Agoume904%<1%8%11%0.6
Juan Iglesias904%<1%4%8%0.6
Kike Salas724%<1%1%5%0.5
Peque bench152%<1%1%4%0.2
Gabriel Suazo901%<1%7%8%0.2
Julio Díaz bench141%<1%2%3%0.1
Arouna Sangante bench26<1%<1%<1%1%0.1
José Ángel Carmona bench7<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Odisseas Vlachodimos90<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0