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Real Betis v Osasuna

57%Real Betis
24%Draw
19%Osasuna

Real Betis ahead.

Tested

Real Betis win about 57 times in 100. The other 43: a draw (24) or an Osasuna win (19).

Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:26 CEST, before kickoff.

3 or more goals52%
Both teams score52%
Expected goals1.8 v 1.0
Most likely score1-012% chance

Likely line-ups

Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoff
Real Betis3-2-4-15-2-3Osasuna

Players to watch

Model estimate

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Numbers to expect

Forecast by Vesta

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.

Shots16.010.4
Shots on target5.63.6
Corners5.73.8
Fouls10.913.0
Yellow cards1.82.4

What's at stake

Model estimate

The chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.

What Real Betis v Osasuna changes for both teams
Team and chanceNowReal Betis winDrawOsasuna win
Real Betis
Top 447%53%42%37%
Osasuna
Top 4<1%<1%<1%1%
Bottom 316%19%14%10%

Goals in the match

Tested
1 or more goals94%
2 or more goals76%
3 or more goals52%
4 or more goals31%
5 or more goals15%

Exactly

0 goals6%
1 goal18%
2 goals24%
3 goals21%
4 goals16%
5 goals8%
6 or more goals6%

Goals by team

Tested
Real Betis: 1 or more84%
Real Betis: 2 or more54%
Real Betis: 3 or more27%
Osasuna: 1 or more62%
Osasuna: 2 or more25%
Osasuna: 3 or more7%
Both teams score52%
At least one team does not score48%

Winning margin

Tested
Real Betis by 3 or more15%
Real Betis by 217%
Real Betis by 124%
Draw24%
Osasuna by 113%
Osasuna by 25%
Osasuna by 3 or more2%

Result combinations

Tested
Real Betis win or draw81%
Either team wins (no draw)76%
Osasuna win or draw43%

Clean sheets

Tested
Real Betis keep a clean sheet38%
Osasuna keep a clean sheet16%
Real Betis win without conceding32%
Osasuna win without conceding10%
No goals at all6%

The first goal

Model estimate
Real Betis score first62%
Osasuna score first32%
No goals6%

When it comes

Minutes 1-1532%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+17%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+5%

Every score

Tested

Chance of each score in percent: Real Betis goals down, Osasuna goals across.

Chance of each exact score
Home goals down, away goals across012345
06.06.52.70.80.2·
111.711.24.91.60.40.1
210.09.55.41.40.30.1
36.15.82.81.10.2·
42.82.71.30.40.1·
51.01.00.50.1··

Halves

Tested
A goal in the first half70%
A goal in the second half79%
Real Betis ahead at half-time42%
Level at half-time40%
Osasuna ahead at half-time18%
Real Betis win the second half46%
Second half level34%
Osasuna win the second half19%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half45%
Same goals in both halves25%

Half-time and full-time

Tested
Real Betis ahead at half-time, Real Betis win36%
Level at half-time, Real Betis win19%
Osasuna ahead at half-time, Real Betis win3%
Real Betis ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw14%
Osasuna ahead at half-time, draw5%
Real Betis ahead at half-time, Osasuna win1%
Level at half-time, Osasuna win8%
Osasuna ahead at half-time, Osasuna win10%

When the goals come

Model estimate

Expected goals in each 15 minutes.

1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
Real BetisOsasuna

Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works

Every player's chances

Model estimate

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

Real Betis
Real Betis: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Juan Camilo Hernández5926%4%10%33%2.1
Antony7022%3%14%33%2.8
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli4919%2%12%29%1.6
Troy Parrott bench3117%1%6%22%1.0
Isco5615%1%10%23%1.5
Pablo Fornals5811%<1%12%22%1.0
Rodrigo Riquelme bench3410%<1%5%15%0.9
Facundo Bernal546%<1%5%10%0.9
Fran García725%<1%6%11%0.4
Héctor Bellerín805%<1%12%16%0.4
Marc Roca675%<1%9%13%0.7
Nelson Deossa bench425%<1%5%10%1.2
Natan904%<1%2%5%0.4
Marc Bartra bench493%<1%<1%4%0.5
Valentín Gómez bench342%<1%3%4%0.2
Dani Ceballos bench121%<1%1%3%0.2
Júnior Firpo bench18<1%<1%2%3%0.1
Álvaro Fidalgo bench5<1%<1%<1%1%0.1
Diego Llorente bench8<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Ángel Ortiz bench10<1%<1%<1%1%0.0
Álvaro Vallés90<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Osasuna
Osasuna: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Ante Budimir7828%4%3%30%1.7
Raul García5017%1%5%21%1.2
Kike Barja bench316%<1%4%9%0.4
Jonathan Dubasin bench345%<1%3%7%0.4
Rubén García564%<1%8%12%0.5
Alejandro Catena724%<1%2%6%0.3
Asier Osambela bench393%<1%3%6%0.4
Jon Moncayola723%<1%7%9%0.4
Iker Muñoz703%<1%3%5%0.5
Raul Moro bench292%<1%5%7%0.3
Abel Bretones692%<1%5%6%0.3
Iñigo Arguibide802%<1%4%5%0.3
Lucas Torró bench241%<1%1%2%0.2
Rockson Yeboah411%<1%2%3%0.1
Unai Santos bench331%<1%1%3%0.1
Enzo Boyomo411%<1%2%3%0.1
Romain Del Castillo bench61%<1%<1%2%0.1
Moi Gómez bench301%<1%4%5%0.2
Aimar Oroz bench16<1%<1%2%2%0.1
Diego Rico bench21<1%<1%<1%<1%0.1
Jorge Herrando bench8<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Aitor Fernández bench36<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Sergio Herrera54<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0