Real Betis v Osasuna
Real Betis ahead.
TestedReal Betis win about 57 times in 100. The other 43: a draw (24) or an Osasuna win (19).
Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:26 CEST, before kickoff.
Likely line-ups
Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoffPlayers to watch
Model estimateEach player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).
- Juan Camilo Hernández26%to score
- Antony22%to score
- Abdessamad Ezzalzouli19%to score
- Troy Parrott17%to score
Numbers to expect
Forecast by VestaWhat each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.
What's at stake
Model estimateThe chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.
| Team and chance | Now | Real Betis win | Draw | Osasuna win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | ||||
| Top 4 | 47% | 53% | 42% | 37% |
| Osasuna | ||||
| Top 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Bottom 3 | 16% | 19% | 14% | 10% |
Goals in the match
TestedExactly
Goals by team
TestedWinning margin
TestedResult combinations
TestedClean sheets
TestedThe first goal
Model estimateWhen it comes
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Real Betis goals down, Osasuna goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | · |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
TestedHalf-time and full-time
TestedWhen the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works
Every player's chances
Model estimateEveryone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Camilo Hernández | 26% | 10% | 2.1 |
| Antony | 22% | 14% | 2.8 |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 19% | 12% | 1.6 |
| Troy Parrott bench | 17% | 6% | 1.0 |
| Isco | 15% | 10% | 1.5 |
| Pablo Fornals | 11% | 12% | 1.0 |
| Rodrigo Riquelme bench | 10% | 5% | 0.9 |
| Facundo Bernal | 6% | 5% | 0.9 |
| Fran García | 5% | 6% | 0.4 |
| Héctor Bellerín | 5% | 12% | 0.4 |
| Marc Roca | 5% | 9% | 0.7 |
| Nelson Deossa bench | 5% | 5% | 1.2 |
| Natan | 4% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Marc Bartra bench | 3% | <1% | 0.5 |
| Valentín Gómez bench | 2% | 3% | 0.2 |
| Dani Ceballos bench | 1% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Júnior Firpo bench | <1% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Álvaro Fidalgo bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Diego Llorente bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Ángel Ortiz bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Álvaro Vallés | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ante Budimir | 28% | 3% | 1.7 |
| Raul García | 17% | 5% | 1.2 |
| Kike Barja bench | 6% | 4% | 0.4 |
| Jonathan Dubasin bench | 5% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Rubén García | 4% | 8% | 0.5 |
| Alejandro Catena | 4% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Asier Osambela bench | 3% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Jon Moncayola | 3% | 7% | 0.4 |
| Iker Muñoz | 3% | 3% | 0.5 |
| Raul Moro bench | 2% | 5% | 0.3 |
| Abel Bretones | 2% | 5% | 0.3 |
| Iñigo Arguibide | 2% | 4% | 0.3 |
| Lucas Torró bench | 1% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Rockson Yeboah | 1% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Unai Santos bench | 1% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Enzo Boyomo | 1% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Romain Del Castillo bench | 1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Moi Gómez bench | 1% | 4% | 0.2 |
| Aimar Oroz bench | <1% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Diego Rico bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Jorge Herrando bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Aitor Fernández bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Sergio Herrera | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |



