Austria ahead.
TestedAustria win about 60 times in 100. The other 40: a draw (25) or a Kosovo win (15).
Forecast by Vesta, published Sunday 27 September 2026, 13:35 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 3–1: Vesta gave this result 60%. The favourite came through.
3 or more goals46%
Both teams score45%
Expected goals1.7 v 0.8
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals91%
2 or more goals72%
3 or more goals46%
4 or more goals25%
5 or more goals11%
Exactly
0 goals9%
1 goal19%
2 goals26%
3 goals21%
4 goals14%
5 goals7%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedAustria: 1 or more83%
Austria: 2 or more52%
Austria: 3 or more26%
Kosovo: 1 or more54%
Kosovo: 2 or more18%
Kosovo: 3 or more4%
Both teams score45%
At least one team does not score55%
Winning margin
TestedAustria by 3 or more16%
Austria by 219%
Austria by 125%
Draw25%
Kosovo by 111%
Kosovo by 24%
Kosovo by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedAustria win or draw85%
Either team wins (no draw)75%
Kosovo win or draw40%
Clean sheets
TestedAustria keep a clean sheet46%
Kosovo keep a clean sheet17%
Austria win without conceding37%
Kosovo win without conceding9%
No goals at all9%
The first goal
Model estimateAustria score first64%
Kosovo score first28%
No goals9%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1530%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Austria goals down, Kosovo goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.6 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | · |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half67%
A goal in the second half74%
Austria ahead at half-time43%
Level at half-time42%
Kosovo ahead at half-time15%
Austria win the second half47%
Second half level37%
Kosovo win the second half16%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves28%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateAustria ahead at half-time, Austria win38%
Level at half-time, Austria win20%
Kosovo ahead at half-time, Austria win2%
Austria ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw16%
Kosovo ahead at half-time, draw4%
Austria ahead at half-time, Kosovo win1%
Level at half-time, Kosovo win6%
Kosovo ahead at half-time, Kosovo win8%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
AustriaKosovo
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works