Germany, clearly.
TestedGermany win about 68 times in 100. The other 32: a draw (21) or a Greece win (11).
Forecast by Vesta, published Sunday 27 September 2026, 13:36 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 0–1: Vesta gave this result 11%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals50%
Both teams score43%
Expected goals2.0 v 0.7
Most likely score2-014% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals93%
2 or more goals75%
3 or more goals50%
4 or more goals28%
5 or more goals13%
Exactly
0 goals7%
1 goal18%
2 goals25%
3 goals22%
4 goals15%
5 goals8%
6 or more goals5%
Goals by team
TestedGermany: 1 or more86%
Germany: 2 or more59%
Germany: 3 or more32%
Greece: 1 or more49%
Greece: 2 or more15%
Greece: 3 or more3%
Both teams score43%
At least one team does not score57%
Winning margin
TestedGermany by 3 or more22%
Germany by 221%
Germany by 125%
Draw21%
Greece by 18%
Greece by 22%
Greece by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedGermany win or draw89%
Either team wins (no draw)79%
Greece win or draw32%
Clean sheets
TestedGermany keep a clean sheet51%
Greece keep a clean sheet14%
Germany win without conceding43%
Greece win without conceding6%
No goals at all7%
The first goal
Model estimateGermany score first69%
Greece score first23%
No goals7%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1531%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6010%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+5%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Germany goals down, Greece goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · |
| 1 | 13.3 | 10.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · |
| 3 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half70%
A goal in the second half77%
Germany ahead at half-time49%
Level at half-time39%
Greece ahead at half-time12%
Germany win the second half54%
Second half level34%
Greece win the second half13%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves27%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateGermany ahead at half-time, Germany win45%
Level at half-time, Germany win20%
Greece ahead at half-time, Germany win3%
Germany ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw14%
Greece ahead at half-time, draw4%
Germany ahead at half-time, Greece win1%
Level at half-time, Greece win5%
Greece ahead at half-time, Greece win6%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
GermanyGreece
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works