- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Lithuania v Azerbaijan
40%Lithuania
30%Draw
30%Azerbaijan
Lithuania, just.
TestedLithuania win about 40 times in 100. The other 60: a draw (30) or an Azerbaijan win (30).
Forecast by Vesta, published Sunday 27 September 2026, 13:35 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 1–1: Vesta gave this result 30%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.3 v 1.1
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedLithuania: 1 or more72%
Lithuania: 2 or more36%
Lithuania: 3 or more13%
Azerbaijan: 1 or more66%
Azerbaijan: 2 or more29%
Azerbaijan: 3 or more9%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedLithuania by 3 or more6%
Lithuania by 212%
Lithuania by 122%
Draw30%
Azerbaijan by 118%
Azerbaijan by 28%
Azerbaijan by 3 or more4%
Result combinations
TestedLithuania win or draw70%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Azerbaijan win or draw60%
Clean sheets
TestedLithuania keep a clean sheet34%
Azerbaijan keep a clean sheet28%
Lithuania win without conceding24%
Azerbaijan win without conceding18%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateLithuania score first49%
Azerbaijan score first41%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1528%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+7%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Lithuania goals down, Azerbaijan goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 14.0 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half72%
Lithuania ahead at half-time30%
Level at half-time45%
Azerbaijan ahead at half-time25%
Lithuania win the second half33%
Second half level41%
Azerbaijan win the second half26%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateLithuania ahead at half-time, Lithuania win23%
Level at half-time, Lithuania win15%
Azerbaijan ahead at half-time, Lithuania win2%
Lithuania ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Azerbaijan ahead at half-time, draw5%
Lithuania ahead at half-time, Azerbaijan win2%
Level at half-time, Azerbaijan win11%
Azerbaijan ahead at half-time, Azerbaijan win17%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
LithuaniaAzerbaijan
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works