Norway, just.
TestedNorway win about 42 times in 100. The other 58: a draw (30) or a Portugal win (28).
Forecast by Vesta, published Sunday 27 September 2026, 13:36 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 1–2: Vesta gave this result 28%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.3 v 1.0
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedNorway: 1 or more73%
Norway: 2 or more37%
Norway: 3 or more14%
Portugal: 1 or more64%
Portugal: 2 or more28%
Portugal: 3 or more9%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedNorway by 3 or more7%
Norway by 212%
Norway by 122%
Draw30%
Portugal by 118%
Portugal by 28%
Portugal by 3 or more3%
Result combinations
TestedNorway win or draw71%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Portugal win or draw58%
Clean sheets
TestedNorway keep a clean sheet36%
Portugal keep a clean sheet27%
Norway win without conceding25%
Portugal win without conceding17%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateNorway score first50%
Portugal score first39%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1528%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Norway goals down, Portugal goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half72%
Norway ahead at half-time31%
Level at half-time46%
Portugal ahead at half-time23%
Norway win the second half34%
Second half level41%
Portugal win the second half25%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateNorway ahead at half-time, Norway win25%
Level at half-time, Norway win16%
Portugal ahead at half-time, Norway win2%
Norway ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Portugal ahead at half-time, draw5%
Norway ahead at half-time, Portugal win2%
Level at half-time, Portugal win11%
Portugal ahead at half-time, Portugal win16%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
NorwayPortugal
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works