Turkey, just.
TestedTurkey win about 46 times in 100. The other 54: a draw (29) or an Italy win (25).
Forecast by Vesta, published Sunday 27 September 2026, 22:55 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 1–4: Vesta gave this result 25%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals42%
Both teams score47%
Expected goals1.4 v 1.0
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals69%
3 or more goals42%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedTurkey: 1 or more75%
Turkey: 2 or more40%
Turkey: 3 or more16%
Italy: 1 or more62%
Italy: 2 or more25%
Italy: 3 or more7%
Both teams score47%
At least one team does not score53%
Winning margin
TestedTurkey by 3 or more8%
Turkey by 214%
Turkey by 123%
Draw29%
Italy by 116%
Italy by 27%
Italy by 3 or more2%
Result combinations
TestedTurkey win or draw75%
Either team wins (no draw)71%
Italy win or draw54%
Clean sheets
TestedTurkey keep a clean sheet38%
Italy keep a clean sheet25%
Turkey win without conceding28%
Italy win without conceding15%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateTurkey score first53%
Italy score first37%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+7%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Turkey goals down, Italy goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half72%
Turkey ahead at half-time34%
Level at half-time44%
Italy ahead at half-time21%
Turkey win the second half36%
Second half level40%
Italy win the second half24%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateTurkey ahead at half-time, Turkey win28%
Level at half-time, Turkey win16%
Italy ahead at half-time, Turkey win2%
Turkey ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Italy ahead at half-time, draw5%
Turkey ahead at half-time, Italy win1%
Level at half-time, Italy win10%
Italy ahead at half-time, Italy win14%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
TurkeyItaly
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works