Albania, clearly.
TestedAlbania win about 95 times in 100. The other 5: a draw (4) or a San Marino win (1).
Forecast by Vesta, published Tuesday 29 September 2026, 12:07 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 0–3: Vesta gave this result 95%. The favourite came through.
3 or more goals81%
Both teams score28%
Expected goals0.3 v 4.0
Most likely score0-414% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals99%
2 or more goals93%
3 or more goals81%
4 or more goals64%
5 or more goals45%
Exactly
0 goals1%
1 goal5%
2 goals12%
3 goals17%
4 goals19%
5 goals17%
6 or more goals27%
Goals by team
TestedSan Marino: 1 or more29%
San Marino: 2 or more5%
San Marino: 3 or more0%
Albania: 1 or more98%
Albania: 2 or more91%
Albania: 3 or more77%
Both teams score28%
At least one team does not score72%
Winning margin
TestedSan Marino by 3 or more0%
San Marino by 20%
San Marino by 11%
Draw4%
Albania by 19%
Albania by 216%
Albania by 3 or more70%
Result combinations
TestedSan Marino win or draw5%
Either team wins (no draw)96%
Albania win or draw99%
Clean sheets
TestedSan Marino keep a clean sheet2%
Albania keep a clean sheet71%
San Marino win without conceding0%
Albania win without conceding69%
No goals at all1%
The first goal
Model estimateSan Marino score first8%
Albania score first91%
No goals1%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1547%
Minutes 16-3025%
Minutes 31-45+14%
Minutes 46-607%
Minutes 61-754%
Minutes 76-90+2%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: San Marino goals down, Albania goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 5.0 | 10.2 | 13.8 | 13.9 | 11.3 |
| 1 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 3.8 |
| 2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | · | · | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 4 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half86%
A goal in the second half91%
San Marino ahead at half-time3%
Level at half-time18%
Albania ahead at half-time79%
San Marino win the second half2%
Second half level13%
Albania win the second half85%
More goals in the first half32%
More goals in the second half48%
Same goals in both halves19%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateSan Marino ahead at half-time, San Marino win0%
Level at half-time, San Marino win0%
Albania ahead at half-time, San Marino win0%
San Marino ahead at half-time, draw1%
Level at half-time, draw2%
Albania ahead at half-time, draw1%
San Marino ahead at half-time, Albania win2%
Level at half-time, Albania win15%
Albania ahead at half-time, Albania win78%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
San MarinoAlbania
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works