- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Azerbaijan v Liechtenstein
90%Azerbaijan
8%Draw
2%Liechtenstein
Azerbaijan, clearly.
TestedAzerbaijan win about 90 times in 100. The other 10: a draw (8) or a Liechtenstein win (2).
Forecast by Vesta, published Thursday 1 October 2026, 17:41 CEST on our social channels, before kickoff.
Final score 0–0: Vesta gave this result 8%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals70%
Both teams score33%
Expected goals3.2 v 0.4
Most likely score3-015% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals97%
2 or more goals88%
3 or more goals70%
4 or more goals49%
5 or more goals30%
Exactly
0 goals3%
1 goal9%
2 goals18%
3 goals21%
4 goals19%
5 goals14%
6 or more goals16%
Goals by team
TestedAzerbaijan: 1 or more96%
Azerbaijan: 2 or more83%
Azerbaijan: 3 or more62%
Liechtenstein: 1 or more34%
Liechtenstein: 2 or more7%
Liechtenstein: 3 or more1%
Both teams score33%
At least one team does not score67%
Winning margin
TestedAzerbaijan by 3 or more53%
Azerbaijan by 221%
Azerbaijan by 115%
Draw8%
Liechtenstein by 12%
Liechtenstein by 20%
Liechtenstein by 3 or more0%
Result combinations
TestedAzerbaijan win or draw98%
Either team wins (no draw)92%
Liechtenstein win or draw10%
Clean sheets
TestedAzerbaijan keep a clean sheet65%
Liechtenstein keep a clean sheet4%
Azerbaijan win without conceding63%
Liechtenstein win without conceding1%
No goals at all3%
The first goal
Model estimateAzerbaijan score first86%
Liechtenstein score first11%
No goals3%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1541%
Minutes 16-3024%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-609%
Minutes 61-755%
Minutes 76-90+3%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Azerbaijan goals down, Liechtenstein goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · | · | · |
| 1 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · | · |
| 2 | 13.5 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 3 | 14.5 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 4 | 11.7 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 0.1 | · | · |
| 5 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half80%
A goal in the second half87%
Azerbaijan ahead at half-time70%
Level at half-time26%
Liechtenstein ahead at half-time4%
Azerbaijan win the second half76%
Second half level20%
Liechtenstein win the second half4%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half47%
Same goals in both halves22%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateAzerbaijan ahead at half-time, Azerbaijan win69%
Level at half-time, Azerbaijan win19%
Liechtenstein ahead at half-time, Azerbaijan win2%
Azerbaijan ahead at half-time, draw1%
Level at half-time, draw5%
Liechtenstein ahead at half-time, draw1%
Azerbaijan ahead at half-time, Liechtenstein win0%
Level at half-time, Liechtenstein win1%
Liechtenstein ahead at half-time, Liechtenstein win1%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
AzerbaijanLiechtenstein
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works